Canada GDP Numbers: What Borrowers Should Know
Much like the global economic landscape, Canada’s economy is constantly in flux. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) serves as a reliable indicator, providing insights and data into the economic health and prospects of the Canadian economy.
The most recent figures indicate that GDP rose by 0.2% in February, after a 0.1% increase in January. The quarterly report, released on February 27th, revealed that GDP declined 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2025. This post provides a deeper understanding of Statistics Canada’s latest data and its implications for borrowers in the Canadian market.
Key Takeaways
- The latest GDP numbers show the Canadian economy grew slightly in January.
- In 2025, real GDP grew 1.7%.
- Preliminary estimates indicate the economy will remain unchanged in March.
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Latest GDP Numbers in Canada
Gross domestic product (GDP) measures Canada’s economic activity based on the total value of all goods and services produced in Canada over a specific period. Dividing total GDP by population yields the average economic activity per citizen, known as GDP per capita.
When tracked over many years, GDP can show whether Canada’s economy is growing or contracting. When GDP rises, it is a sign of good economic health. Meanwhile, contracting GDP indicates that Canada is not operating at full capacity and may be heading into, or already in, an economic recession.
Statistics Canada reported that the Canadian economy grew 0.2% in February, after 0.1% growth in January.
Sectors that saw contractions include:
- The manufacturing sector rose 1.8%, leading growth in February.
- The wholesale trade sector increased 0.9%, largely offsetting the decline in January.
- The transportation and warehousing sector was up 1.2%.
- Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction rose 0.4%.
- Finance and insurance grew 0.3%, led by increases in banking, monetary authorities and other depository credit intermediation.
Sectors that saw gains include:
- The public sector declined 0.3% following three consecutive monthly increases.
- The arts, entertainment and recreation sector fell 2.5%, marking its first decline in three months and the largest since January 2022.
GDP Fourth Quarter of 2025
Statistics Canada’s Q4 GDP data recorded a 0.2% decline following a 0.6% rise in Q3. This decline was primarily due to withdrawals of business inventories following inventory accumulations in Q3. Higher exports, household spending and government capital investment offset some of the decline.
Imports grew 0.3% as higher imports of computers, clothing and footwear, and metal ores were offset by lower imports of pharmaceutical and medicinal products. In 2025, imports were down 0.4%, driven by a 2.9% decrease in Q3.
Exports increased 1.5% after a 0.9% increase in Q3. Growth was led by higher exports of unwrought gold and of unwrought aluminum and aluminum alloys. Overall, exports in 2025 fell 1.7% as shipments to the United States never fully recovered after a Q2 drop.
Canada’s Economy Grew 0.2% in February, With Growth Projected to be Unchanged for March
February’s GDP rose 0.2%, with 8 of 20 industrial sectors growing. According to Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimate for March, GDP is expected to remain essentially unchanged. This estimate is based on increases in wholesale trade and transportation and warehousing offset by declines in retail trade and mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction.
Housing Investment Increases
Residential investment, a key driver of the Canadian economy, fell in Q4. This decline was driven by a 2.4% decrease in ownership transfer costs, which measure resale-market activity. Lower renovations (-1.3%) and new construction (-0.5%) also contributed to the Q4 decline.
Overall, residential investment marked its first annual increase since 2021. Increases in new construction (+1.0%) and renovations (+2.7%) more than offset the decline in ownership transfer costs (-3.4%) over the year.
Real Estate Rental and Leasing vs. Home Sales
The real estate rental and leasing sector rose 0.3% in Q4 and was up for the third consecutive quarter. Overall, in 2025, this sector experienced a 1.7% increase despite a 2.1% decline in offices of real estate agents and brokers and activities related to real estate, as national home resales fell.
In January, lower activity at the offices of real estate agents and brokers and activities related to real estate fell 6.1%. This was the largest decline since February 2025 and reflects a decline in national home resales across all provinces, particularly in Ontario and British Columbia. Legal services, which derive much of their operations from real estate transactions, were down 1.1%.
Household Spending Increases
Household spending rose 0.4% in Q4 after declining 0.2% in Q3. Higher rent and financial services in Q4 were partially offset by lower spending on new passenger vehicles and alcoholic beverages. Annually, household final consumption was up 2.3% for 2025. This kept pace with the 2.2% growth from each of the previous two years. The increase in 2025 was driven by higher household spending on financial services and rent.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) About the Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
What is GDP?
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures Canada’s total economic output over a specific period. It represents the monetary value of all finished goods and services produced domestically by Canadian businesses.
What is the GDP of Canada, and why is it important?
As of Q4 2025, Canada’s GDP declined by 0.2%, indicating economic contraction. GDP is a key indicator of whether our economy is performing well or showing signs of a recession. A recession can be determined by two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP.
What are the major industries in Canada?
Canada has a diverse economy, with key industries including natural resources (such as oil, mining, and forestry), manufacturing, the services sector (including real estate, education, and health), and, increasingly, technology and innovation.
Final Thoughts
The latest GDP numbers paint a complex picture of the Canadian economy. With the economy reacting daily to interest rates, this may be an opportune time to prepare your finances if you are looking to purchase a home or renew or refinance your mortgage.
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