Canada GDP Numbers: What Borrowers Should Know
Much like the global economic landscape, Canada’s economy is constantly in flux. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) serves as a reliable indicator, providing insights and data into the economic health and prospects of the Canadian economy.
The most recent figures indicate that GDP rose 0.2% in September, offsetting the 0.1% decline in August. The quarterly report, released on November 28th, revealed that GDP increased 0.6% in the third quarter of 2025. This post provides a greater understanding of Statistics Canada’s latest numbers and their implications for borrowers in the Canadian market.
Key Takeaways
- The latest GDP numbers show the Canadian economy grew 0.2% in September.
- In 2024, GDP grew 1.5%.
- Preliminary estimates indicate the economy will contract by 0.3% in October.
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Latest GDP Numbers in Canada
Gross domestic product (GDP) measures Canada’s economic activity based on the total value of all goods and services produced in Canada over a specific period. Dividing total GDP by the population yields the average economic activity each citizen contributes, known as GDP per capita.
When tracked over many years, GDP can show whether Canada’s economy is growing or contracting. When GDP is rising, it is a sign of good economic health. Meanwhile, contracting GDP indicates that Canada is not working at full capacity or might be heading toward, or is already in, an economic recession.
Statistics Canada reported that the Canadian economy grew 0.2% in September, offsetting the 0.1% decline in August.
Sectors that saw contractions include:
- The retail trade sector, down 0.7% was the largest detractor to growth in September.
- The construction sector was down 0.2% following 4 consecutive monthly increases.
Sectors that saw gains include:
- The manufacturing sector led overall growth this month, up 1.6% with growth in both durable-goods and non-durable-goods manufacturing.
- The transportation and warehousing sector grew 1.2% partially offsetting the 1.3% decline in August.
- The mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector rose 0.3% to more than offset the decline in August.
- The wholesale trade sector was up 0.6%.
GDP Third Quarter of 2025
Statistics Canada’s Q3 GDP data recorded a 0.6% increase following a 0.5% decline in Q2. The Q3 increase was led by a strengthening trade balance, with imports dropping and exports up. Overall growth was subdued due to declines in household and government final consumption expenditures as well as slower accumulation of business inventory.
Imports of goods and services fell 2.2% the largest drop since Q4 of 2022. Imports of unwrought gold, silver and platinum group metals fell in Q3 after a significant increase in Q2. Imports of industrial machinery, equipment, and parts declined partially due to a stronger Q2, driven by the import of a large oil and gas platform module.
Exports of goods and services increased 0.2% a slight increase from a significant 7.0% drop in Q2. The increase was led by higher exports of crude oil and crude bitumen (+6.7%) and commercial services (+1.7%). Decreased exports of unwrought gold, silver and platinum group metals moderated the overall increase this quarter.
Canada’s Economy Grew 0.2% in September, With a Decline Projected in October
September’s GDP grew 0.2%, with the manufacturing sector leading overall growth. According to Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimate for October, GDP is expected to decrease 0.3%. This advanced estimate is due to decreases in oil and gas extraction, educational services, and manufacturing, partially offset by increases in mining, quarrying, and support services.
Housing Investment Increases
Residential investment, a key driver of the Canadian economy, increased in Q3. This increase was driven by a 9.1% rise in ownership transfer costs, which measure resale-market activity. Residential resale activity grew in all provinces except Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island and Manitoba.
Residential renovations increased 1.2%, but were largely offset by a 0.8% decline in new construction as work put in place for apartments decreased in all provinces and territories except Nova Scotia and British Columbia.
Real Estate Rental and Leasing vs. Home Sales
The real estate rental and leasing sector rose 1.0% in Q3 and was up for a second consecutive quarter. Growth in the sector was mainly due to higher activity at the offices of real estate agents and brokers and activities related to real estate, up 7.0%. This reflects rising resale activity across Canada, particularly in the Greater Toronto-Hamilton and Metro Vancouver areas. Legal services, which derive most of their activity from real estate transactions, rose 1.1% in Q3.
Household Spending Increases
On a per capita basis, household spending fell 0.2% in Q3 after increasing 1.0% in Q2. Household final consumption expenditure fell 0.1% in Q3, as spending on passenger vehicles decreased 2.3%, offset by increases in expenditures on rent and financial investment services. Spending abroad fell 3.9% reflecting fewer international trips made by Canadians.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is GDP?
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures Canada’s total economic output over a specific period. It represents the monetary value of all finished goods and services produced domestically by Canadian businesses.
What is the GDP of Canada, and why is it important?
As of Q3 2025, Canada’s GDP rose by 0.6%, indicating economic expansion. GDP is a key indicator of whether our economy is performing well or if there are signs of a recession. A recession can be determined by two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP.
What are the major industries in Canada?
Canada has a diverse economy, with key industries including natural resources (such as oil, mining, and forestry), manufacturing, the services sector (including real estate, education, and health), and, increasingly, technology and innovation.
Final Thoughts
The latest GDP numbers paint a complex picture of the Canadian economy. The bond futures market and economists are pricing in a rate hold at the December announcement.
With the economy reacting daily to interest rates, this may be an opportune time to prepare your finances if you are looking to purchase a home or renew or refinance your mortgage. Reach out to nesto mortgage experts to understand your borrowing capacity and solidify your mortgage strategy.
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