Quebec Housing Market Outlook 2023
Table of contents
Quebec Market Report Summary
- The benchmark single-family home in Quebec increased by 3.2% year-over-year to $524,000 in October 2023.
- Quebec’s benchmark townhouse/multiplex price increased by 1.9% year-over-year to $529,300 in October 2023.
- The benchmark condo price in Quebec increased by 5.8% year-over-year to $372,600 in October 2023.
- Quebec’s benchmark composite home price increased by 3.5% year-over-year to $468,300 in October 2023.
- The average rent for an apartment in Quebec increased by 13% year-over-year to $1,977 for October 2023.
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Quebec Housing Market Summary
Data from the Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers (QPAREB) indicates that the average price of resale residential homes sold across Quebec in October 2023 was $468,300, an increase of 3.5% compared to a year ago.
With a sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) of 52%, Quebec’s provincial housing market has remained balanced for October 2023.
Verbatim: What local experts from the Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers (QPAREB) say about Québec’s provincial housing market:
The Quebec City CMA posted 729 residential sales during October 2023. This represents an increase of 89 transactions, up 14 % compared to October 2022. Note that this is the third highest level of transactional activity for this time of year since the Centris system began compiling market data in 2000.
“The Quebec City market continues to impress with its imperviousness to national bad news. This resilience is based on the robustness of the region’s economy, but also on property prices which, in addition to their enviable position compared to other major markets, are experiencing more gradual growth,” notes Charles Brant, QPAREB Market Analysis Director. “However, the situation could change if prices continue to increase at the same pace in the coming months. As in any market that presents problems of imbalance between supply and demand, the continuous rise in prices attracts investors despite the higher interest rates. This context could exacerbate speculative behaviour harmful to the housing market in general.”
The Agglomeration of Quebec City (507 sales) and the Northern Periphery (90 sales) recorded marked annual increases of 16 % and 23 %, respectively. With 132 sales in October 2023, the South Shore of Quebec City recorded a modest 2 % rise compared to a year ago.
In the main metropolitan areas of the Quebec City CMA, median prices for single-family homes varied between +1 % and +3 %. On the South Shore of Quebec City, the median price of single-family homes stood at $340,000, an increase of 3 % compared to a year ago. The median price of single-family homes in the Northern Periphery reached $399,000, growing by 2 % compared to October last year. The median price of single-family homes in the Agglomeration of Quebec City reached $350,000, up by 1 %.
Month-over-Month Expectations for Quebec’s Housing Market
The sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) is the number of home sales compared to new listings. An SNLR under 40% suggests a buyer’s market where buyers have the upper hand and more negotiating power. An SNLR between 40% and 60% is a balanced market, while an SNLR of over 60% is considered a seller’s market.
Changes To Quebec’s Regional Prices by Property Type
Historical Changes To Benchmark Quebec’s Prices By Property Type
Last 10 Years of Monthly Changes to Quebec’s Composite Home Price
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Who’s Buying Quebec Real Estate?
Until recently, the primary demographics driving demand in Quebec’s, and more importantly, its biggest city, Montreal’s residential property market were those looking to upsize their homes, foreign investors looking to purchase an investment property in one of Canada’s university towns, professionals who recently immigrated to Canada in the past 5 years, and out-of-province migrants advancing their careers in and around Montreal.
With the passing of the omnibus Bill C-32 legislation, including the foreign buyers’ ban and anti-flipping tax, the Quebec homebuyers’ demographic may be shifting away from foreign investment. However, it remains to be seen whether efforts to limit foreign buyers in Quebec will impact it; according to Statistics Canada, foreign investors make up less than 5% of homeowners in Quebec’s total homeownership. However, that number significantly jumps to 50% when considering properties valued over $1 million for non-Quebec residents.
According to an article by Newswire, investors and multi-property owners accounted for over 16% of Quebec’s homebuyers in 2021, particularly in downtown Montreal, where the numbers were even higher.
First-time homebuyers have traditionally accounted for more than half of all purchases. However, that share has slowly declined, reaching a low of 46.8% in June 2021, with real estate investors and multiple property owners picking up the difference.
According to Statistics Canada, multiple property owners represent 15% of owners in BC and Ontario and 20% in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia but hold 30% and 40% of existing housing stock, respectively.
Upsizing by buyers has driven Quebec’s demand for single-family homes, which showed the highest year-on-year price increase of all property types from $371,700 in February 2020, which is still more than 39% lower than today’s price at $517,800. You’ll notice that most of Quebec’s 7-digit home valuations are centred in and around the Outremont and Westmount boroughs of Montreal.
Immigration & Out-of-province Migration
While the pandemic saw thousands of homebuyers leaving urban areas searching for more space and affordable housing, new immigrants are making Quebec’s affordable homes a continued surge. Although many provinces except for Alberta saw a stark net migration out, Quebec continues to see net migration into the province due mainly to more affordable housing and distinct culture. Quebec currently boasts the second-best labour market and participation rate. According to this report by Re/Max, the federal government expects to bring an additional 2 million new immigrants to Canada – many of whom will still choose to settle in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal.
Getting a mortgage in Quebec as a first-time buyer can be challenging for many. On average, Quebec municipalities have some of the highest property tax rates among the larger provinces of comparable size. Ontario averages around 1%, whereas BC and Alberta average well below that.
While programs like the First Time Home Buyer Incentive are in place to help people afford homes in Quebec, this has yet to do much to offset affordability as the stress test makes it harder to qualify. At the same time, the Bank of Canada keeps rates elevated – adding a barrier to qualifying for a home without a combined household income over $120,000.
Given the slowdown over the last 12 months in home prices, Quebec remains an affordable market to purchase a first home – for those looking to get good value for their money!
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Rents Continue to Surge Across Canada in October
Rapidly escalating rents have become a nationwide concern in Canada, profoundly impacting family budgets and exacerbating the housing affordability crisis in several regions. Let’s review rent increases and their implications on Canadian households.
According to Urbanation’s November 2023 Rentals.ca Report, the average asking price for rental units in Canada hit $2,178 in October, marking a significant 9.9% increase compared to the previous year. This surge is not recent; rents have consistently hit new highs for half a year. On a monthly scale, the average asking rents witnessed a 1.4% rise in October, a slight dip from the 1.5% and 1.8% monthly increments in September and August, respectively. These fluctuations are typically attributed to seasonal variations.
The average rent for 1-bedroom units reached $1,906 in October, a whopping 14% higher than in 2022. Similarly, the average asking price for 2-bedroom units was $2,255, an 11.8% annual increase.
Price escalations in Alberta, Quebec, and Nova Scotia fuel Canadian rent inflation. This inflation is partly due to substantial population growth and an influx of new rental supply priced above the average market rates. Among Canada’s major cities, Calgary in Alberta saw the highest annual rent growth for apartments for 9 consecutive months.
In Alberta, the standard rental price for purpose-built and condominium apartments reached a high of $1,686 in October, marking a 16.4% increase from the previous year. This rate outpaced the growth seen in September, which was 15.3%. In Nova Scotia, the average rent for apartments rose by 13.6% compared to the year before, reaching a price of $2,097. Quebec followed closely with a growth rate of 13.3%, leading to an average rent of $1,977.
Despite these increases, British Columbia held onto its crown as the province with the highest average apartment rents, clocking in at $2,639 in October. However, B.C. experienced a slight dip of 0.6% in its rent month-on-month, marking its second successive monthly drop. This drop resulted in a decreased annual growth rate of 9.8% in October from 12.3% in September. Vancouver consistently ranks as the priciest city for tenants in Canada. The average rent for a 1-bedroom unit in Vancouver was $2,872, and a 2-bedroom.
Edmonton climbed the ladder to secure the third spot in yearly rent increase among the most significant Canadian cities, with apartment rents witnessing an 8.6% rise annually, reaching an average of $1,461. Conversely, Ottawa slid from third to fifth as the annual rent increase slowed to 3.5% in October (down from a 9.7% yearly rate in September), with rents averaging $2,197. The asking rents for apartments in Ottawa experienced a minor slump of 0.3% on a monthly basis. While these figures were slightly lower than September’s prices, they marked an annual increase of 6.7% and 5.5%, respectively.
Ontario recorded the slowest annual growth in apartment rents in October, with a modest increase of 4.6% (in contrast to the 6.6% increase reported for September). After falling by 0.4% between August and September, the average rent requests in Ontario are stabilizing.
For the ninth consecutive month, Calgary has reigned supreme in yearly rental increments for flats amongst Canada’s most populous cities. The request for purpose-built and condominium apartments in Calgary saw a significant surge of 14.7% from the previous year, settling at an average price of $2,093. Montreal held its position as runner-up, with an annual rent increase of 10.2%, accumulating to an average of $2,046 as of October.
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In Vancouver, the priciest among Canada’s major cities, average rents fell by 3.7% month-on-month to $3,215. The annual rent increase in Vancouver decelerated to 4.4% in October (down from 7.7% in September). Toronto recorded a year-on-year decline of 0.8%, averaging $2,908 — marking the first annual rent drop since August 2021.
Of Canada’s top 25 rental markets with the highest costs, Ontario was home to 14, British Columbia (B.C.) 9, and the remaining 2 in Quebec.
The 3 priciest regions for average apartment rental rates in October among small and medium-sized cities were all based in British Columbia. They included North Vancouver, with an average ask of $3,360; Coquitlam, at an average of $3,116; and Richmond, with an average of $3,051.
Ontario dominated the list of the top 10 priciest markets with 6 cities. The highest-ranking Ontario city was Oakville, in fourth place, demanding an average rent of $3,008. This was followed by Vaughan in sixth place with an average rent of $2,754 and Mississauga in seventh place with an average of $2,700. In the high-end rental markets outside the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Kanata came out on top in October with an average rent rate of $2,561. Barrie, Guelph, and Waterloo followed closely behind with their respective rates of $2,326, $2,246, and $2,227.
In Quebec, the areas with the highest average apartment rents during October were represented by 2 Montreal markets: Côte Saint-Luc ($2,458) and Mount Royal ($2,427). Notably, Côte Saint-Luc witnessed the most rapid rent growth in October, recording a 36.6% annual increase. This was followed by a 29.1% yearly hike in Richmond and a 22.3% annual surge in Red Deer.
During October, we observed a notable surge in listings for co-living spaces across provinces like B.C., Alberta, Ontario, and Quebec. Compared to the previous year, the numbers climbed a significant 42%. Parallel to this increase, the average rental prices for shared residences also experienced growth. A rise of 19% was recorded on a year-over-year basis, reaching an average monthly rental of $964.
Specifically, shared accommodation rentals commanded the highest rents in B.C., where the average cost was $1,176. In particular, Vancouver emerged as a pricy city for such arrangements, with an average rent of $1,454. Moving over to Alberta, renters seeking roommates were typically expected to shell out an average monthly rent of $870 in October. In terms of cities, Calgary noted an average of $911, while Edmonton was slightly more affordable at $737.
Ontario did not lag far behind B.C. in terms of high rents for shared accommodations. It held the position of having the second-highest average roommate rent in Canada at $1,068. Toronto led the pack in the province with an average rent of $1,312, and Ottawa followed with an average of $966. Meanwhile, Montreal’s shared housing market in Quebec saw an average asking rent of $873.
Several factors contribute to the escalating rental situation, including interprovincial migration and a declining homeownership trend due to high interest rates. A third of Canadian households are renters, a rate growing twice as fast as homeowners. As rents continue to soar, Canada must address housing affordability and ensure adequate rental supply. These issues are not only affecting family budgets but also contributing to broader economic challenges, including inflation. By tackling these issues head-on, Canada can ensure a more sustainable and equitable housing market for all its residents.
Market Rents Summary
Each $100K in mortgage balance costs an average of $601.11 per month on nesto’s lowest fixed 5-year rate at
Rental Prices Compared to Other Canadian Cities
Rental Prices Compared to Other Provinces and Nationally
Average Rents by Housing Type
Rental Growth by Housing Type
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is the Quebec housing market going to crash in 2023?
Quebec home prices are currently sagging due to surging mortgage rates. Quebec prices remain below average compared to the rest of the country, and with the current Bank of Canada rate hikes, mortgages have been harder to qualify for due to the stress test. Quebec prices will recover quicker than in other areas once mortgage rates decline back to manageable levels for homebuyers to purchase or homeowners to refinance their homes.
Will Quebec’s housing prices increase in 2023?
Although currently declining, many experts believe that a turnaround is imminent. Buyers are waiting on the sidelines for the opportune time to make a move. The market has already started to get closer to becoming a seller’s market.
How do I get approved for a mortgage in Quebec?
To get approved for a mortgage in Quebec, look at Quebec mortgage rates and see how much you can afford. This will give you an idea of what it will cost to buy a home in Montreal at today’s prices and rates. You can check out what you need to get pre-approved for a mortgage or start by getting a quote.
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Interest Rate: Qualified using nesto’s fixed 5-year insured and uninsured rates as advertised on our website. For today, Tuesday, December 5, 2023, our example calculations are qualified on our lowest rates, which may or may not apply to your unique financing situation or long-term goals. Insured fixed-rate mortgages will be qualified at
Property Values: Home values collected from CREA or QPAREB are those presented as the composite benchmark or average prices for each city/province/region unless specified. They may be interchangeably called average home prices, though an average price may not be available for many regions outside Quebec.
Rents: Our monthly or year-over-year rental averages are sourced from Urbanation’s monthly Rentals.ca National Rental Report.
Mortgage Qualifying Criteria: Insured qualifying criteria are limited to a 39% gross debt service (GDS) ratio and up to 25 years of amortization. For insured mortgage transaction calculations, we have used a 20% downpayment, unless otherwise indicated, in our examples and excluded any mortgage default insurance (CMHC) premium. Uninsured qualifying criteria are limited to a 35% gross debt service (GDS) ratio and up to 30 years of amortization. We have used a 20% downpayment for uninsured mortgage transaction calculations in our examples. Unless otherwise indicated, a $100 monthly heating cost is attributed to the total monthly stress-tested payment. Municipal tax rates are the most recently shown on the applicable municipality’s website (1% used as default when unavailable or for a region with an unspecified mill rate). Mortgage default insurance is not permitted on purchases that have valuations of $1 million or more, amortizations exceeding 25 years, or on refinance transactions.
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