Mortgage Basics

Calgary Housing Market Outlook 2024

Calgary Housing Market Outlook 2024

Table of contents


    Calgary Market Report Summary

    • Calgary’s benchmark single-family home price increased by 11% year-over-year to $635,600 by the end of December 2023.
    • Calgary’s benchmark townhouse house price increased by 17.2% year-over-year to $449,000 by the end of December 2023.
    • The benchmark condo price in Calgary increased by 15% year-over-year to $327,800 by the end of December 2023.
    • Calgary’s benchmark composite home price increased by 9.6% year-over-year to $554,500 by the end of December 2023. In comparison, provincially, Alberta’s average home sale price was up by 8.8% from a year ago to $487,400.
    • The average rent in Calgary increased by 14% year-over-year to $2,071 for December 2023.

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    Calgary Housing Market 2023 versus 2024

    Calgary’s housing market has a long history of fluctuating due to economic cycles, changing demographics, and policy shifts. In this article, we’ll dive deeper into the Calgary housing market. We’ll compare Calgary’s performance in 2023 and look ahead at what’s to come in 2024. Additionally, we will take a look at what’s driving the market, who’s buying and selling, and provide advice for buyers and sellers.

    State of the Housing Market in Calgary

    Calgary, renowned for its spacious homes, excellent public transit, high quality of life and vibrant economy, has various housing options to suit various demographics.

    Calgary Housing Market Performance in 2023

    In 2023, the Calgary housing market experienced a period of high demand, with property prices hitting record highs. The benchmark price increased significantly, with particular growth in the lower-priced home segment. The city’s benchmark price rose to $572,700 by November 2023, indicating a 10.7% increase since November 2022, according to the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB). A slight drop off in average home prices to $570,100 occurred by the year’s end, capping the year’s increase by 10.4%. Calgary also made the list, being rated as one of the world’s top 10 cities for housing affordability and retained its spot in the top 10 on the Economist Intelligence Most Livable Cities Index 2 years in a row.

    Calgary Housing Market Conditions Analysis

    With the rise in property prices, the supply of homes in the market dwindled, leading to a 26% drop in inventory. The robust demand and limited supply led to a seller’s market, with conditions remaining tight throughout the year. A tight market was especially true for lower-priced properties, which saw the most substantial price gains.

    The strong demand for property in Calgary was primarily driven by significant population growth, economic resilience, and a shift towards more affordable housing segments.

    Factors Influencing the Calgary Housing Market in 2024

    There are several factors expected to shape Calgary’s housing market in 2024.

    Economic Factors

    Alberta’s economy shows resilience with solid consumer spending and business and sales activity. Despite unexpected job losses in September 2023, the overall strength of the labour market is evident, with the unemployment rate expected to remain below pre-pandemic levels for a significant part of 2024.

    Migration Patterns

    Calgary is experiencing significant population growth, a key factor driving housing demand. The migration trend towards more affordable areas is expected to continue in 2024. The federal government’s record-high immigration targets will likely further challenge the already record-low inventory levels in the housing market. 

    Global Influences

    Factors such as US policies, international conflicts, and supply chain disruptions influence Calgary’s housing market as they would for most regions of Canada. The US’s significant investment in new Green industries necessitates increased Canadian spending to stay competitive. This change to the green economy greatly affects investment in Alberta’s oil patch, which is mainly headquartered in Calgary. Recent global conflicts are increasing immigration to Canada, intensifying the demand for affordable housing.

    Calgary Housing Market Predictions for 2024

    The Calgary housing market is predicted to witness ongoing price growth in 2024. The aggregate price of a home in Calgary is forecast to jump 8% year-over-year by the end of 2024, according to Royal LePage’s 2024 market report. The projected increase aligns with growth over the past 2 to 3 years.

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    Who’s Buying Calgary Real Estate?

    Several vital demographics are contributing to the demand in Calgary’s housing market.

    Multi-property Investors

    Calgary’s real estate market has attracted multi-property investors due to its affordable prices and high rates in the rental market, especially in the condominium market segment.

    Upsizing and Move-up Buyers

    Families looking to upgrade to larger homes are a significant segment of buyers. Despite the challenges of qualifying for a new mortgage at current rates, these upsizing buyers continue to fuel demand in and around Calgary’s regional market.

    Immigration & Out-of-province Migration

    Immigrants and out-of-province migrants significantly contribute to the demand for housing in Calgary. Compared to other major cities, Calgary’s affordability continues to attract individuals looking for a high standard of living at a lower cost. Migration into the province has contributed to a decrease in re-sale home inventory in Calgary. 

    While interprovincial migration is expected to slow, if current migration levels continue to outperform projections, it may take longer than anticipated for improvements in supply to drive stronger price growth. The new home market has responded positively to the recent increase in migration; however, the level of construction will need to align more closely with migration data before a significant adjustment in supply occurs. There is ample land available for development; however, municipal requirements may limit the time it takes to bring additional supply to the market.

    First-Time Homebuyers

    First-time homebuyers and several key demographic segmentations remain significant in the Calgary real estate market as the cost to get into the housing market still remains lower than most other Canadian real estate.  

    According to Statistics Canada, Calgary accounts for nearly half of the province’s population growth and is growing faster than the rest of the province. Calgary’s population is projected to grow by almost 5% in 2023 and by 4% in 2024. Although slower growth is projected, population growth is still high and is expected to continue to drive strong housing demand through 2024.

    Advice for Buyers and Sellers in Calgary

    Given the current state of Calgary’s housing market, homebuyers and sellers will require insightful decision-making.

    For sellers, the current seller’s market conditions indicate that it is an excellent time to put your property on the market. However, it’s essential to be aware of possible shifts in the market, especially with mortgage renewals coming up in 2024-2025.

    For those looking to buy a home for the first time, it is crucial to understand the realities of the market. With the predicted rise in property prices, potential buyers may need to adjust their expectations or consider different types of properties, including condominiums or townhouses.
    To sum up, Calgary’s housing market is ever-changing. While there are still some unknowns out there, we expect the market to continue to be resilient and provide opportunities for both homebuyers and sellers. Therefore, it’s important to stay informed and always seek professional advice when it comes to managing your real estate.

    Evaluate your finances and contact your mortgage lender early to get a preapproval or prequalification to understand your buying power. Reach out to nesto’s mortgage experts to understand how much mortgage you can afford in Calgary.

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    Frequently Asked Questions

    Is the Calgary housing market going to crash in 2024?

    Calgary home prices are currently sagging a bit compared to last year’s surge in the housing market nationally due to the Bank of Canada’s rate hikes. Calgary prices remain below average compared to the rest of the country, and with the current Bank of Canada rate hikes, mortgages have been harder to qualify for due to the stress test. Calgary prices will recover quicker than in other areas once mortgage rates decline back to manageable levels for homebuyers to purchase or homeowners to refinance their homes.

    Will Calgary housing prices increase in 2024?

    Although slightly increased already, many experts believe a bigger turnaround is imminent.  Buyers are waiting on the sidelines for the opportune time to make a move. The market has already started to get past balanced territory.

    How do I get approved for a mortgage in Calgary?

    To get approved for a mortgage in Calgary, look at Calgary mortgage rates and see how much you can afford. This will give you an idea of what it will cost to buy a home in Calgary at today’s prices and rates. You can check out what you need to get pre-approved for a mortgage or start by getting a quote.

    Final Thoughts

    Calgary’s property market is set to remain strong as increases are expected for the remainder of 2024. The average home price in Calgary is recovering quicker than in other areas around Canada. This comes after months of record consecutive price rises during the pandemic and one of the most intense periods of price appreciation last year. 

    While the property market appears to be recovering value in Calgary, it’s important to remember that small volatility should be expected over the long term. It’s always a good time to buy a property if you’re a qualified buyer. Over the long term, expect property values to keep surging as immigration brings more buyers to the Canadian market.

    If you are looking for a home in 2024, expect an imminent turnaround in the housing market over the next few months. Contact our knowledgeable and commission-free mortgage experts at nesto to help guide you through the home-buying process.

    How nesto works

    At nesto, all of our commission-free mortgage experts hold concurrent professional designations from one or more provinces. Our clients will receive the best advice and care when they speak with specialists that exceed the industry status quo. 

    Unlike the industry norm, our agents are not commissioned but salaried employees. This means you’ll get free, unbiased advice on the most suitable mortgage solution for your unique needs. Our advisors are measured on the satisfaction and quality of advice they provide to their clients. 

    nesto is working hard to change how the mortgage industry functions. We start with honest and transparent advice, followed by our best rates upfront. We can offer you these low rates using the fintech industry’s best-in-class and safest technology to provide a 100% digital online experience and process to reduce overhead costs.

    By working remotely across Canada, all our mortgage experts and staff spend less time commuting to work and more time with their friends and family. This makes for more dedicated employees and contributes to our success with happy and satisfied clients.

    nesto is on a mission to offer a positive, empowering and transparent property financing experience, simplified from start to finish.

    Reach out to our licensed and knowledgeable mortgage experts to find your best mortgage rate in Canada.

    EXPLANATIONS

    Rates

    Values

    Rents

    Criteria

    Experts

    Titles

    Interest Rates

    Qualified using nesto’s fixed 5-year insured and uninsured rates as advertised on our website. For today, Thursday, February 29, 2024, our example calculations are qualified on our lowest rates, which may or may not apply to your unique financing situation or long-term goals. Insured fixed-rate mortgages will be qualified at , which is exactly 2% in addition to our fixed insured rate currently at . Uninsured fixed-rate mortgages will be qualified at , which is exactly 2% in addition to our fixed uninsured rate currently at . Insured variable rate mortgages will be qualified at , which is exactly 2% in addition to our variable insured rate currently at . Uninsured variable rate mortgages will be qualified at , which is exactly 2% in addition to our variable uninsured rate currently at .

    We appreciate your patience and understanding and encourage you to email us at website@nesto.ca with information that needs correction alongside your sources.

    Property Values

    Home values collected from CREA or QPAREB are those presented as the composite benchmark or average prices for each city/province/region unless specified. They may be interchangeably called average home prices, though an average price may not be available for many regions outside Quebec.

    Rents

    Our monthly or year-over-year rental averages are sourced from Urbanation’s monthly Rentals.ca National Rental Report.

    Mortgage Qualifying Criteria

    Insured qualifying criteria are limited to a 39% gross debt service (GDS) ratio and up to 25 years of amortization. For insured mortgage transaction calculations, we have used a 20% downpayment, unless otherwise indicated, in our examples and excluded any mortgage default insurance (CMHC) premium. Uninsured qualifying criteria are limited to a 35% gross debt service (GDS) ratio and up to 30 years of amortization. We have used a 20% downpayment for uninsured mortgage transaction calculations in our examples. Unless otherwise indicated, a $100 monthly heating cost is attributed to the total monthly stress-tested payment. Municipal tax rates are the most recently shown on the applicable municipality’s website (1% used as default when unavailable or for a region with an unspecified mill rate). Mortgage default insurance is not permitted on purchases that have valuations of $1 million or more, amortizations exceeding 25 years, or on refinance transactions.

    nesto Mortgage Experts

    Titles such as mortgage broker, mortgage agent, submortgage broker, mortgage salesperson, or principal broker are provincially regulated licensing terms with educational requirements specific to each province. Albeit, commonly, they may all be referred to as mortgage brokers. In Ontario, where mortgage agent is used as a designation, mortgage brokers or principal brokers have additional responsibility for compliance and training mortgage agents.

    Licensed mortgage professionals often use the industry norm of “mortgage broker,” “broker,” or “advisor” to refer to themselves. However, disclosure requirements for licensed mortgage professionals’ titles vary across each province in Canada. These disclosures require mortgage brokers to adhere to specific rules when using titles to represent their qualifications and expertise. The provinces have regulations and guidelines that govern the use of titles by mortgage brokers. These regulations aim to ensure transparency and protect consumers in the mortgage industry.

    Regulatory Titles

    In Ontario (FSRA), Mortgage Brokers and Agents both serve as the middle person between borrowers and lenders, helping clients find the most suitable mortgage options for their financing situation. A Mortgage Agent works under the supervision of a Mortgage Broker and assists in the mortgage application process. A Mortgage Broker may also be responsible for compliance requirements for their brokerage or a team.

    The provinces of Quebec (AMF) and Newfoundland (Digital & Government Service NL) both exclusively utilize the designation of Mortgage Broker as a licensing designation.

    British Columbia (BCFSA) has two distinct roles within the mortgage industry: the Submortgage Broker and the Mortgage Broker. These positions have specific responsibilities and functions that contribute to the overall process of securing mortgages for clients. The Submortgage Broker works under the supervision of a licensed Mortgage Broker and assists in various tasks, such as gathering client information, completing paperwork, and liaising with lenders. The Mortgage Broker oversees the entire mortgage application process, including assessing client needs, finding suitable mortgage options, negotiating terms, and ensuring compliance with regulations.

    In Alberta (RECA) and New Brunswick (FCNB), the distinction between a Mortgage Associate and a Mortgage Broker lies in their roles and responsibilities within the mortgage industry. A Mortgage Associate typically works under the supervision of a Mortgage Broker and assists in the mortgage application process gathering necessary documentation, and providing support to clients. A Mortgage Broker is licensed to independently negotiate and arrange mortgage loans on behalf of clients, offering a more comprehensive range of mortgage options and expertise in the field.

    In Saskatchewan (FCAA) and Nova Scotia (Government of Nova Scotia, Business Licensing), there are distinct roles for both Associate Mortgage Brokers and Mortgage Brokers. The critical difference lies in their level of experience and licensing requirements. Associate Mortgage Brokers work under the supervision of a licensed Mortgage Broker and are in the early stages of their career. They may assist with gathering client information and preparing mortgage applications. Mortgage Brokers have obtained the necessary qualifications and licences to operate independently and provide mortgage services directly to clients. They have the authority to negotiate mortgage terms, advise clients, and facilitate the mortgage process from start to finish.

    In Manitoba (MSC), a Salesperson is primarily responsible for promoting and selling products or services, while an Authorised Official holds the authority to make legally binding decisions on behalf of the organization. These roles have different levels of authority and expertise, with the Salesperson focusing on sales and the Authorised Official having broader decision-making powers and acting as the liaison between the brokerage and the regulator. 

    For a complete list of licensing terms in Canada, please see the Mortgage Broker Regulators’ Council of Canada (MBRCC) published list.


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