Real Estate

Ontario Housing Market Outlook 2024

Ontario Housing Market Outlook 2024

Table of contents


    Ontario Market Report Summary

    • The average selling price of a home in Ontario decreased by 4.3% year-over-year to $885,100 in June 2024.
    • The average selling price of a single-family home in Ontario decreased by 4.1% year-over-year to $973,400 in June 2024.
    • The average selling price of a townhouse/multiplex in Ontario decreased by 3.4% year-over-year to $709,100 in June 2024.
    • The average selling price of a condo in Ontario decreased by 4.4% year-over-year to $617,800 in June 2024.
    • The average rent in Ontario decreased by 1.0% year-over-year to $2,382 for June 2024.

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    Composite Home Prices

    The average selling price of a home in Ontario was $885,100 for the month of June 2024, that’s decreased by 0.6% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, Ontario home prices have decreased 4.3% over the last 12 months.

    Single-family Home Prices

    The average selling price of a single-family home in Ontario was $973,400 for the month of June 2024, that’s decreased by 0.6% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, single-family home prices in Ontario have decreased by 4.1% over the last 12 months.

    Townhouse and Multiplex Prices

    The average selling price of a townhouse in Ontario was $709,100 for the month of June 2024, that’s decreased by 0.4% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, the price of a townhouse in Ontario has decreased by 3.4% over the last 12 months.

    Condo Prices

    The average selling price of a condo in Ontario was $617,800 for the month of June 2024, that’s decreased by 0.4% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, the price of a condo in Ontario has decreased 4.4% over the last 12 months.

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    Ontario Housing Market Summary

    Data from the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) indicates that the average price of resale residential homes sold across Ontario in June 2024 was $885,100, and it decreased of 4.3% compared to a year ago.

    OREA indicates also reported a sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) of 41%, indicating a balanced market in Ontario for June 2024.

    The Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) reports that the Ontario housing market slowed in June 2024 compared to the previous year and historical averages. Home sales dropped 15.1% compared to June 2023 and fell below five-year and ten-year averages. Despite this decline, the year-to-date total sales remained relatively stable, showing a moderate decrease of 4% from the same period in 2023.

    Average home prices also experienced a slight dip. The average resale price in June 2024 was $884,761, representing a 2.3% decrease year-over-year. This trend continued in year-to-date data, with the average price dipping modestly by 1.2% compared to the first half of 2023. Interestingly, the national average price showed a similar slight decline of 1.6% year-over-year in June 2024.

    On the other hand, there’s a shift in supply. New listings entering the market in June 2024 saw a 5.1% increase compared to the previous year. Additionally, the number of active listings at the end of June jumped significantly by 52.1% compared to June 2023. This increase in available homes pushed the inventory level to 3.8 months at the end of June, which is higher than the historical average for this time of year. This shift in supply towards a buyer’s market is also reflected in the province’s overall dollar value of home sales, which dropped by 17% in June 2024 compared to the same month in 2023.

    A study by Altus Group revealed that each housing transaction in Ontario from 2020 to 2022 generated an average of $88,966 in spin-off spending. This spending includes various expenses such as legal fees, appraisers, moving costs, new appliances, and home renovation expenses. In May alone, home sales potentially generated over $68 million, highlighting the significant economic impact of the real estate industry. The real estate industry plays a crucial role in Ontario’s economy, creating thousands of jobs annually. From 2020 to 2022 alone, resale housing activity in Ontario created an estimated 106,565 jobs annually in the manufacturing, construction, finance, and insurance sectors. 

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    Month-over-Month Expectations for Ontario’s Housing Market

    Transactions –  Number of Sales

    The number of sales in Ontario was 16,060 during June 2024, that’s decreased by 10.1% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, sales in Ontario have decreased by 13.8% over the last 12 months.

    New Listings

    The number of new listings in Ontario was 39,164 during June 2024, that’s decreased by 9.9% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, new listings in Ontario have increased by 7.1% over the last 12 months.

    Real Estate Market

    The sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) in Ontario was 41% during June 2024, indicating a balanced market. On a monthly basis, that’s unchanged by 0.3% compared to the previous month. Ontario’s yearly sales to new listings ratio has decreased by 19.5% over the last 12 months.

    The sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) measures the number of home sales compared to new listings. An SNLR under 40% suggests a buyer’s market in which buyers have the upper hand and more negotiating power. An SNLR between 40% and 60% is a balanced market, while an SNLR of over 60% is considered a seller’s market. 

    Annual Changes to Regional Composite Home Prices in Ontario

    Annual Changes to the Composite Home Price in Ontario

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    Ontario Market Rents Summary

    The average rent in Ontario was $2,382 for the month of June 2024, which decreased by 1.0% on a year-over-year basis.

    The average rent for a bachelor apartment in Ontario was $1,843 for the month of June 2024, which increased by 1.0% on a year-over-year basis.

    The average rent for a 1-bedroom apartment in Ontario was $2,171 for the month of June 2024, which decreased by 2.0% on a year-over-year basis.

    The average rent for a 2-bedroom apartment in Ontario was $2,643 for the month of June 2024, which decreased by 1.0% on a year-over-year basis.

    The average rent for a 3-bedroom apartment in Ontario was $2,171 for the month of June 2024, which decreased by 1.0% on a year-over-year basis.

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    How Does Renting Compare with Homeownership in Ontario?

    Each $100,000 in mortgage balance costs an average of $555.70 per month on nesto’s lowest fixed 5-year rate at and $623.08 per month on nesto’s lowest adjustable 5-year rate at . For each $100,000 in mortgage balance, a 0.25% change in Canada’s policy rate impacts the monthly payment by $15. Rates used for calculation are those offered on insured purchases with less than a 20% downpayment on a 25-year amortization. Canada’s policy rate is , and nesto’s prime rate is set to .

    Rental Price Changes by City

    Rental Price Changes by Province

    Rental Price Growth by Housing Type

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    Frequently Asked Questions

    Is the Ontario housing market going to crash in 2024?

    Ontario home prices are currently sagging due to surging mortgage rates. Ontario prices remain some of the highest in the country, and with the current Bank of Canada rate hikes, mortgages have been harder to qualify for due to the stress test. Ontario prices will recover quicker than in other areas once mortgage rates decline back to manageable levels for homebuyers to purchase or homeowners to refinance their homes. 

    Will Ontario’s housing prices increase in 2024?

    Although currently declining, many experts believe that a turnaround is imminent.  Homebuyers are waiting on the sidelines for the opportune time to move. Once an affordability equilibrium is reached, a balance between mortgage interest-carry costs and home prices is created. 

    How do I get approved for a mortgage in Ontario?

    To get approved for a mortgage in Ontario, look at Ontario mortgage rates and see how much you can afford. This will give you an idea of what it will cost to buy a home in Ontario at today’s prices and rates. You can check out what you need to get pre-approved for a mortgage or start by getting a quote

    Why Choose nesto

    At nesto, our commission-free mortgage experts, certified in multiple provinces, provide exceptional advice and service that exceeds industry standards. Our mortgage experts are non-commissioned salaried employees who provide impartial guidance on mortgage options tailored to your needs and are evaluated based on client satisfaction and advice quality. nesto aims to transform the mortgage industry by providing honest advice and competitive rates using a 100% fully digital, transparent, seamless process.

    nesto is on a mission to offer a positive, empowering and transparent property financing experience – simplified from start to finish.

    Contact our licensed and knowledgeable mortgage experts to find your best mortgage rate in Canada.

    EXPLANATIONS

    Interest Rates

    Property Values

    Home Price Index

    Property Types

    Property Ownership Classes

    Strata Insurance

    Rental Values

    Qualifying Criteria

    Professional Titles

    Mortgage Experts

    Interest Rates

    Qualified using nesto’s fixed 5-year insured and uninsured rates as advertised on our website. For today, Tuesday, July 23, 2024, our example calculations are qualified on our lowest rates, which may or may not apply to your unique financing situation or long-term goals. Insured fixed-rate mortgages will be qualified at , which is exactly 2% in addition to our fixed insured rate currently at . Uninsured fixed-rate mortgages will be qualified at , which is exactly 2% in addition to our fixed uninsured rate currently at . Insured variable rate mortgages will be qualified at , which is exactly 2% in addition to our variable insured rate currently at . Uninsured variable rate mortgages will be qualified at , which is exactly 2% in addition to our variable uninsured rate currently at .

    We appreciate your patience and understanding and encourage you to email us at website@nesto.ca with information that needs correction alongside your sources.

    Property Values

    Home values collected from CREA or QPAREB are those presented as the composite benchmark or average prices for each city/province/region unless specified. They may be interchangeably called average home prices, though an average price may not be available for many regions outside Quebec.

    MLS® Home Price Index (HPI)

    The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) is a real estate price index compiled by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) that tracks the price of homes in your neighbourhood. It’s a quick way for Canadians to compare home prices in different parts of Canada and between different periods without having to factor in the unique characteristics of a particular property.

    While market prices can vary from one month to the next based on seasonal factors, the Home Price Index (HPI) provides a more consistent view and tracks price trends over an extended period. The Home Price Index (HPI) is updated annually in May to reflect changes in real estate markets.

    MLS® HPI is the most comprehensive and precise way to track a neighbourhood’s home price level and trends. MLS HPI uses over 15 years of data from the MLS® System and advanced statistical models to create a “typical” home based on the characteristics of homes purchased and sold. This benchmark home is tracked across all Canadian neighbourhoods and various types of homes.

    Property Types

    Detached homes, also known as single-family homes, are residential properties that stand alone and are not connected to other buildings. They are legal single residential units on their own parcel of land and have a separate title.

    Semi-detached homes are characterized by their unique architectural design. Two houses are built side by side and share a common wall. Although sharing a building, semi-detached homes have their own parcel of land and separate legal titles.

    Townhouses are residential dwellings typically characterized by narrow, tall structures, often sharing walls with neighbouring units. Although they may share yards or common elements with their neighbours, townhouses will have separate legal titles from any adjoining building. Townhouses can be purchased as freehold or leasehold within a condo or strata and may come with their own land parcel. Townhouses can be part of a low-rise or high-rise building.

    Condo apartments, also known as condominiums, are residential properties that combine elements of apartments and individual homes. It is a unit within a larger building or complex owned by an individual who also shares ownership of common areas and amenities with other residents. Condo apartment owners have legal ownership of their units and can modify them within the guidelines set by the condominium association. Unlike a townhouse, condos do not offer exclusive use of outdoor space unless they come with a balcony or terrace. Condos can be part of a low-rise or high-rise building.

    Plexes or multiplexes are unique residential buildings constructed into 2 to 6 units within a single structure. Traditionally, they have been designed as low-rise residential buildings where any unit is accessible via an external entrance with higher floors connected by staircases. Each unit will have a separate registration and title but may share common elements and co-ownership fees with the other multiplex owners. Plexes are common in Québec and older parts of Toronto.  

    Property Ownership Classes

    freehold is a type of property ownership where an individual or entity has complete and indefinite ownership rights over a property and its parcel of land. Common freehold property types include detached houses, semi-detached houses, farms, and townhouses, which are not part of condominium corporations.

    condominium or condo is a distinct type of property class that combines apartment living and individual homeownership elements. In a condominium, individual units are owned by the residents, while the common areas and amenities are shared among all the unit owners. This type of ownership gives you rights to your specific unit and some rights and responsibilities to the common areas, such as the hallways, elevators, garage, pool and rooftop patios.

    leasehold is a legal arrangement where a person or entity holds the right to use and occupy a property for a specific period, typically through a lease agreement. In some cases, the leaseholder may own the building or unit and rent the land from the landowner (landlord).

    Strata insurance

    Strata insurance is insurance that a strata or condominium uses to cover damages to common areas, assets and liabilities to the strata. It can also include fixtures built or installed as part of the original construction of each unit, even though these may not be common structures. Strata insurance can cover the following:

    • Buildings and structures on the strata’s property, including common areas such as the garage, roof, lobby, pool, etc.,
    • Liabilities for any property damage or bodily harm due to an injury suffered on a strata property,
    • Which also includes fixtures in the standard unit or part of the original make of each unit.

    Strata insurance generally does not cover personal belongings and appliances in a condo unit. Damage caused by individual unit owners (e.g., water damage due to a unit owner’s negligence) is typically covered under personal condo insurance.

    Rental Values

    Our monthly or year-over-year rental averages are sourced from Urbanation’s monthly Rentals.ca National Rental Report.

    Mortgage Qualifying Criteria

    Insured qualifying criteria are limited to a 39% gross debt service (GDS) ratio and up to 25 years of amortization. For insured mortgage transaction calculations, we have used a 20% downpayment, unless otherwise indicated, in our examples and excluded any mortgage default insurance (CMHC) premium. Uninsured qualifying criteria are limited to a 35% gross debt service (GDS) ratio and up to 30 years of amortization. Our examples use a 20% downpayment for uninsured mortgage transaction calculations. Unless otherwise indicated, a $100 monthly heating cost is attributed to the total monthly stress-tested payment. Municipal tax rates are the most recently shown on the applicable municipality’s website (1% used as default when unavailable or for a region with an unspecified mill rate). Mortgage default insurance is not permitted on purchases that have valuations of $1 million or more, amortizations exceeding 25 years, or on refinance transactions.

    Regulatory Titles

    In Ontario (FSRA), mortgage brokers and agents serve as the middle person between borrowers and lenders, helping clients find the most suitable mortgage options for their financing situation. A Mortgage Agent works under the supervision of a Mortgage Broker and assists in the mortgage application process. A Mortgage Broker may also be responsible for compliance requirements for their brokerage or a team.

    The provinces of Quebec (AMF) and Newfoundland (Digital & Government Service NL) both exclusively utilize the designation of Mortgage Broker as a licensing designation.

    British Columbia (BCFSA) has two distinct roles within the mortgage industry: the Submortgage Broker and the Mortgage Broker. These positions have specific responsibilities and functions that contribute to the overall process of securing mortgages for clients. The Submortgage Broker works under the supervision of a licensed Mortgage Broker and assists in various tasks, such as gathering client information, completing paperwork, and liaising with lenders. The Mortgage Broker oversees the entire mortgage application process, including assessing client needs, finding suitable mortgage options, negotiating terms, and ensuring compliance with regulations.

    In Alberta (RECA) and New Brunswick (FCNB), the distinction between a Mortgage Associate and a Mortgage Broker lies in their roles and responsibilities within the mortgage industry. A Mortgage Associate typically works under the supervision of a Mortgage Broker and assists in the mortgage application process gathering necessary documentation, and providing support to clients. A Mortgage Broker is licensed to independently negotiate and arrange mortgage loans on behalf of clients, offering a more comprehensive range of mortgage options and expertise in the field.

    In Saskatchewan (FCAA) and Nova Scotia (Government of Nova Scotia, Business Licensing), there are distinct roles for both Associate Mortgage Brokers and Mortgage Brokers. The critical difference lies in their level of experience and licensing requirements. Associate Mortgage Brokers work under the supervision of a licensed Mortgage Broker and are in the early stages of their career. They may assist with gathering client information and preparing mortgage applications. Mortgage Brokers have obtained the necessary qualifications and licences to operate independently and provide mortgage services directly to clients. They have the authority to negotiate mortgage terms, advise clients, and facilitate the mortgage process from start to finish.

    In Manitoba (MSC), a Salesperson is primarily responsible for promoting and selling products or services, while an Authorised Official holds the authority to make legally binding decisions on behalf of the organization. These roles have different levels of authority and expertise, with the Salesperson focusing on sales and the Authorised Official having broader decision-making powers and acting as the liaison between the brokerage and the regulator. 

    For a complete list of licensing terms in Canada, please see the Mortgage Broker Regulators’ Council of Canada (MBRCC) published list.

    nesto Mortgage Experts

    Titles such as mortgage broker, mortgage agent, submortgage broker, mortgage salesperson, or principal broker are provincially regulated licensing terms with educational requirements specific to each province. Although they may all commonly be referred to as mortgage brokers, in Ontario, where mortgage agents are used as a designation, mortgage brokers or principal brokers have additional responsibility for compliance and training mortgage agents.

    Licensed mortgage professionals often use the industry norm of “mortgage broker,” “broker,” or “advisor” to refer to themselves. However, disclosure requirements for licensed mortgage professionals’ titles vary across each province in Canada. These disclosures require mortgage brokers to adhere to specific rules when using titles to represent their qualifications and expertise. The provinces have regulations and guidelines that govern the use of titles by mortgage brokers. These regulations aim to ensure transparency and protect consumers in the mortgage industry.


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