Real Estate

Canadian Housing Market Outlook 2024

Canadian Housing Market Outlook 2024

Table of contents


    National Market Report Summary

    • The average selling price of a home in Canada decreased by 0.9% year-over-year to $735,900 in April 2024.
    • The average selling price of a single-family home in Canada decreased by 0.6% year-over-year to $812,500 in April 2024.
    • The average selling price of a townhouse/multiplex in Canada decreased by 0.3% year-over-year to $675,600 in April 2024.
    • The average selling price of a condo in Canada decreased by 0.1% year-over-year to $536,600 in April 2024.
    • The average rent in Canada increased by 11.0% year-over-year to $2,150 for April 2024

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    Composite Home Prices

    The average selling price of a home in Canada was $735,900 for the month of April 2024, that’s increased by 0.8% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, Canadian home prices have decreased 0.9% over the last 12 months.

    Single-family Home Prices

    The average selling price of a single-family home in Canada was $812,500 for the month of April 2024, that’s increased by 1.0% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, single-family home prices in Canada have decreased by 0.6% over the last 12 months.

    Townhouse and Multiplex Prices

    The average selling price of a townhouse in Canada was $675,600 for the month of April 2024, that’s increased by 0.9% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, the price of a townhouse in Canada has decreased by 0.3% over the last 12 months.

    Condo Prices

    The average selling price of a condo in Canada was $536,600 for the month of April 2024, that’s increased by 0.4% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, the price of a condo in Canada has decreased 0.1% over the last 12 months.

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    Canada Housing Market Summary

    Data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) indicates that the benchmark price of resale residential homes sold across Canada in April 2024 was $735,900, and it decreased by 0.9% compared to a year ago.

    CREA also reported a sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) of 56%, indicating a balanced market nationally for April 2024.

    The average national home price in April 2024 was $703,446, reflecting a 1.8% drop from April 2023. These figures suggest a slight shift in the housing market dynamics, with some areas showing signs of price moderation. The Canadian housing market experienced a decline in home sales by 1.7% compared to the previous month despite an increase in the number of properties available for sale. However, there was a positive development in terms of newly listed homes, which saw a rise of 2.8% on a month-over-month basis. This surge brought the number of newly listed homes to its highest level since just before the pandemic. It is worth noting that this increase in listings was one of the largest month-over-month gains recorded, second only to the significant market slowdown observed in early 2022.

    Although the MLS Home Price Index (HPI) remained unchanged from the previous month, it experienced a year-over-year dip of 0.9% in April. Additionally, the actual national average sale price, not adjusted for seasonal factors, decreased 1.8% compared to the same period last year. Despite these declines, the number of transactions in April 2024 was 10.1% higher than in April 2023. However, it is essential to consider that a significant portion of this increase may be attributed to the timing of the Easter long weekend.

    The combination of decreased sales and increased new listings in April resulted in a slight easing of the national sales-to-new listings ratio, which stood at 53.4%. This figure is slightly below the long-term average of 55%. Furthermore, the inventory of homes available for sale on a national level increased to 4.2 months at the end of April 2024. This represents a rise from the 3.9 months recorded at the end of March and marks the highest level since the beginning of the pandemic. These indicators suggest a shift in the Canadian housing market, with a greater supply of homes available for potential buyers.
    In April, the National composite HPI remained steady, showing no change from the previous month. This trend has continued for the third consecutive month, indicating a period of relative price stability. Prices are maintaining a sideways movement across most regions in the country, except for Calgary, Edmonton, and Saskatoon, where prices have been gradually increasing since the start of the previous year. The seasonal adjustments on the national composite HPI experienced a 0.9% decrease compared to the previous year, marking the first decline since July 2023.

    Month-over-Month Market Expectations for Canada

    Transactions –  Number of Sales

    The number of sales in Canada was 38,761 during April 2024, that’s decreased by 1.7% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, sales in Canada have increased by 1.3% over the last 12 months.

    New Listings

    The number of new listings in Canada was 69,635 during April 2024, that’s increased by 2.8% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, new listings in Canada have increased by 25.6% over the last 12 months.

    Real Estate Market

    The sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) in Canada was 56% during April 2024, indicating a balanced market. On a monthly basis, that’s decreased by 4.4% compared to the previous month. Canada’s yearly sales to new listings ratio has decreased by 19.3% over the last 12 months.

    The sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) measures the number of home sales compared to new listings. An SNLR under 40% suggests a buyer’s market in which buyers have the upper hand and more negotiating power. An SNLR between 40% and 60% is a balanced market, while an SNLR of over 60% is considered a seller’s market. 

    Annual Changes Composite Home Prices by Province

    Annual Changes to the National Composite Home Prices

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    Housing Market Glossary and Definitions

    MLS® Home Price Index (HPI)

    The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) is a real estate price index compiled by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) that tracks the price of homes in your neighbourhood. It’s a quick way for Canadians to compare home prices in different parts of Canada and between different periods without having to factor in the unique characteristics of a particular property.

    While market prices can vary from one month to the next based on seasonal factors, the Home Price Index (HPI) provides a more consistent view and tracks price trends over an extended period. The Home Price Index (HPI) is updated annually in May to reflect changes in real estate markets.

    MLS® HPI is the most comprehensive and precise way to track a neighbourhood’s home price level and trends. MLS HPI uses over 15 years of data from the MLS® System and advanced statistical models to create a “typical” home based on the characteristics of homes purchased and sold. This benchmark home is tracked across all Canadian neighbourhoods and various types of homes.

    Strata insurance

    Strata insurance is insurance that a strata or condominium uses to cover damages to common areas, assets and liabilities to the strata. It can also include fixtures built or installed as part of the original construction of each unit, even though these may not be common structures. Strata insurance can cover the following:

    • Buildings and structures on the strata’s property, including common areas such as the garage, roof, lobby, pool, etc.,
    • Liabilities for any property damage or bodily harm due to an injury suffered on a strata property,
    • Which also includes fixtures in the standard unit or part of the original make of each unit.

    Strata insurance generally does not cover personal belongings and appliances in a condo unit. Damage caused by individual unit owners (e.g., water damage due to a unit owner’s negligence) is typically covered under personal condo insurance.

    Property Types

    Detached homes, also known as single-family homes, are residential properties that stand alone and are not connected to other buildings. They are legal single residential units on their own parcel of land and have a separate title.

    Semi-detached homes are characterized by their unique architectural design. Two houses are built side by side and share a common wall. Although sharing a building, semi-detached homes have their own parcel of land and separate legal titles.

    Townhouses are residential dwellings typically characterized by narrow, tall structures, often sharing walls with neighbouring units. Although they may share yards or common elements with their neighbours, townhouses will have separate legal titles from any adjoining building. Townhouses can be purchased as freehold or leasehold within a condo or strata and may come with their own land parcel. Townhouses can be part of a low-rise or high-rise building.

    Condo apartments, also known as condominiums, are residential properties that combine elements of apartments and individual homes. It is a unit within a larger building or complex owned by an individual who also shares ownership of common areas and amenities with other residents. Condo apartment owners have legal ownership of their units and can modify them within the guidelines set by the condominium association. Unlike a townhouse, condos do not offer exclusive use of outdoor space unless they come with a balcony or terrace. Condos can be part of a low-rise or high-rise building.

    Plexes or multiplexes are unique residential buildings constructed into 2 to 6 units within a single structure. Traditionally, they have been designed as low-rise residential buildings where any unit is accessible via an external entrance with higher floors connected by staircases. Each unit will have a separate registration and title but may share common elements and co-ownership fees with the other multiplex owners. Plexes are common in Québec and older parts of Toronto.  

    Property Ownership Classes

    A freehold is a type of property ownership where an individual or entity has complete and indefinite ownership rights over a property and its parcel of land. Common freehold property types include detached houses, semi-detached houses, farms, and townhouses not part of condominium corporations.

    A condominium or condo is a distinct type of property class that combines apartment living and individual homeownership elements. In a condominium, individual units are owned by the residents, while the common areas and amenities are shared among all the unit owners. This type of ownership gives you rights to your specific unit and some rights and responsibilities to the common areas, such as the hallways, elevators, garage, pool and rooftop patios.
    A leasehold is a legal arrangement where a person or entity holds the right to use and occupy a property for a specific period, typically through a lease agreement. In some cases, the leaseholder may own the building or unit and rent the land from the landowner (landlord).


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    Canadian Rental Market

    According to the National Rental Report for April 2024, the average monthly rent in Canada remained near a record high of $2,188, showing a 9.3% increase from the previous year. This growth rate was higher than the 8.8% increase in March. Since hitting a low of $1,662 in April 2021, rents have risen by 32% or $526 monthly. Average rents in April increased by 0.3% compared to the previous month, the first rise since January 2024. However, over the past three months, rents have slightly declined by 0.4%, indicating a slowdown in rental price growth after a significant acceleration in spring and summer 2023. 

    Purpose-Built Rentals

    Rents for purpose-built and condominium rental apartments in Canada increased 9.3% YoY, averaging $2,188. Purpose-built rentals increased by 13.1% to $2,124, while condo rentals only increased by 3.8% to $2,331, showing differing dynamics within the rental market for different property types. Purpose-built studios experienced a 17.2% increase in rent prices to $1,575, while condo studios decreased by 0.6% to $1,844. 3-bedroom condo rentals rose by 10.6% to $2,959. 

    Rental Prices Continue to Surge Provincially 

    All provinces, except Ontario, experienced rising apartment rent prices. Saskatchewan had the highest annual growth at 18.4%. However, the average rent for apartments in Saskatchewan remains the lowest in Canada at $1,300. British Columbia had the highest average rent at $2,507, a 2% increase. Alberta experienced a 16% increase to $1,746. Ontario had lower rent prices for studio, 1-bedroom, and 2-bedroom apartments but a 4% increase for 3-bedroom apartments. Alberta and Saskatchewan had the highest increases for 3-bedroom apartments at 21% and 24.5%, respectively.

    Vancouver and Toronto Rents Finally See a Drop 

    Apartment rents in Vancouver and Toronto decreased in April, with Vancouver seeing a 0.4% monthly decline and an 8% yearly drop to an average of $2,982. Toronto experienced a 0.9% monthly decrease and a 2% annual decrease to an average of $2,757. Toronto’s rents have fallen 5.4% since their peak in November 2023, while Vancouver’s rents have dropped by 10.7% since reaching their high in July 2023. 

    Vancouver experienced the most significant decline in rents for studios (-7%) and 1-bedroom apartments (-6%), while 3-bedroom apartments experienced a 3% annual increase. Toronto experienced rent decreases across all apartment types except for studios, which experienced a 1% annual increase. 

    Rents Continue to Rise in and Around Other Metros

    North Vancouver remained Canada’s most expensive rental market, with average apartment rents of $3,190 in April, despite an 8% annual decrease. Richmond Hill ranked second among small and mid-sized markets, with average rents of $2,921. British Columbia had the majority of the top five priciest markets, while Ontario had 16 cities in the top 25. Alberta had 7 cities in the top 25 for fastest-growing rents.

    In Ottawa, Montreal, and Edmonton, the most robust yearly rent growth was observed for 3-bedroom apartments, with growth rates of 10%, 11%, and 18%, respectively. Montreal experienced a rapid annual growth rate of 9% to reach an average rent of $2,061, while Ottawa experienced a slower annual growth rate of 3%, with rents averaging $2,159 in April. 

    Edmonton stood out as the city with the highest rent growth among Canada’s major cities, with apartment rents increasing by 13% annually to an average of $1,507. Calgary’s average rent experienced a 9% increase now at $2,089. Calgary experienced a 10% yearly increase in shared accommodation rents, reaching an average of $908, while Edmonton experienced an 8% rise YoY to $758.

    Côte Saint-Luc in Quebec had a 16% increase in rents, averaging $2,550, ranking fourth. Grande Prairie, Alberta, held the fifth spot with a 15% rise to $1,269. The City of Lloydminster, on the Alberta-Saskatchewan border, had the highest annual rent growth in April, with a 26.7% increase compared to the previous year, maintaining an average monthly cost of $1,122. Waterloo experienced an 18.7% annual rent rise, reaching an average of $2,304. Regina ranked third for fastest-growing rents, with a 17.6% increase (average rent of $1,348).

    Shared Accommodations

    Shared accommodation rents across the four provinces monitored increased by 9% annually, averaging $996 monthly. Alberta’s roommate rents rose 11% YoY to $879, Ontario experienced a 5% increase to $1,079, and British Columbia experienced a 4% rise to an average of $1,169. Quebec’s shared accommodation rents remained unchanged from the previous year, averaging $887. 

    Roommate rental rates in Toronto decreased 5% annually, settling at an average of $1,269. In contrast, shared accommodations in Vancouver declined 1% from the previous year but remained the highest in the nation at $1,450. In Ottawa and Montreal, roommate rents increased by 3% annually, reaching an average of $954 and $946, respectively.

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    Canada Market Rents Summary

    The average rent in Canada was $2,150 for the month of April 2024, which increased by 11.0% on a year-over-year basis.

    The average rent for a bachelor apartment in Canada was $1,590 for the month of April 2024, which increased by 15.0% on a year-over-year basis.

    The average rent for a 1-bedroom apartment in Canada was $1,955 for the month of April 2024, which increased by 12.0% on a year-over-year basis.

    The average rent for a 2-bedroom apartment in Canada was $2,359 for the month of April 2024, which increased by 11.0% on a year-over-year basis.

    The average rent for a 3-bedroom apartment in Canada was $1,955 for the month of April 2024, which increased by 11.0% on a year-over-year basis.

    How Does Renting Compare with Homeownership in Today’s Housing Market?

    Each $100,000 in mortgage balance costs an average of $569.71 per month on nesto’s lowest fixed 5-year rate at and $638.20 per month on nesto’s lowest adjustable 5-year rate at . For each $100,000 in mortgage balance, a 0.25% change in Canada’s policy rate impacts the monthly payment by $15. Rates used for calculation are those offered on insured purchases with less than a 20% downpayment on a 25-year amortization. Canada’s policy rate is , and nesto’s prime rate is .

    Rental Price Changes by City

    Rental Price Changes by Province

    Rental Price Growth by Housing Type

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    Frequently Asked Questions

    Will 2024 be a good time to buy a house?

    Despite the uncertainty in the housing market, 2024 could be an excellent time to buy a house. Interest rates and housing prices are likely to reduce while wages rise – a combination that means more buying power.

    Is Canada in a housing bubble, and will it burst?

    Canadian real estate prices have risen spectacularly since 2000, and with the current pandemic and inflationary pressures, there is speculation that Canada may be bottoming out of a housing bubble. However, experts are mixed on whether or not this bubble will burst; some think prices may take a dip but stay relatively stable, while others expect prices to fall further.

    Should I wait to get a mortgage in 2024?

    Whether or not you wait to get a mortgage in 2024 depends mainly on your financial circumstances. Consider the current market conditions and forecasts and factor them into your financial and long-term plans. It’s also important to remember that waiting may mean missing out on specific opportunities – especially once mortgage rates start reducing. 

    How nesto works

    At nesto, all of our commission-free mortgage experts hold concurrent professional designations from one or more provinces. Our clients will receive the best advice and care when they speak with specialists that exceed the industry status quo. 

    Unlike the industry norm, our agents are not commissioned but salaried employees. This means you’ll get free, unbiased advice on the most suitable mortgage solution for your unique needs. Our advisors are measured on the satisfaction and quality of advice they provide to their clients. 

    nesto is working hard to change how the mortgage industry functions. We start with honest and transparent advice, followed by our best rates upfront. We can offer you these low rates using the fintech industry’s best-in-class and safest technology to provide a 100% digital online experience and process to reduce overhead costs.

    By working remotely across Canada, all our mortgage experts and staff spend less time commuting to work and more time with their friends and family. This makes for more dedicated employees and contributes to our success with happy and satisfied clients.

    nesto is on a mission to offer a positive, empowering and transparent property financing experience, simplified from start to finish.

    Reach out to our licensed and knowledgeable mortgage experts to find your best mortgage rate in Canada.

    EXPLANATIONS

    Rates

    Values

    Rents

    Criteria

    Experts

    Titles

    Interest Rates

    Qualified using nesto’s fixed 5-year insured and uninsured rates as advertised on our website. For today, Saturday, May 25, 2024, our example calculations are qualified on our lowest rates, which may or may not apply to your unique financing situation or long-term goals. Insured fixed-rate mortgages will be qualified at , which is exactly 2% in addition to our fixed insured rate currently at . Uninsured fixed-rate mortgages will be qualified at , which is exactly 2% in addition to our fixed uninsured rate currently at . Insured variable rate mortgages will be qualified at , which is exactly 2% in addition to our variable insured rate currently at . Uninsured variable rate mortgages will be qualified at , which is exactly 2% in addition to our variable uninsured rate currently at .

    We appreciate your patience and understanding and encourage you to email us at website@nesto.ca with information that needs correction alongside your sources.

    Property Values

    Home values collected from CREA or QPAREB are those presented as the composite benchmark or average prices for each city/province/region unless specified. They may be interchangeably called average home prices, though an average price may not be available for many regions outside Quebec.

    Rents

    Our monthly or year-over-year rental averages are sourced from Urbanation’s monthly Rentals.ca National Rental Report.

    Mortgage Qualifying Criteria

    Insured qualifying criteria are limited to a 39% gross debt service (GDS) ratio and up to 25 years of amortization. For insured mortgage transaction calculations, we have used a 20% downpayment, unless otherwise indicated, in our examples and excluded any mortgage default insurance (CMHC) premium. Uninsured qualifying criteria are limited to a 35% gross debt service (GDS) ratio and up to 30 years of amortization. Our examples use a 20% downpayment for uninsured mortgage transaction calculations. Unless otherwise indicated, a $100 monthly heating cost is attributed to the total monthly stress-tested payment. Municipal tax rates are the most recently shown on the applicable municipality’s website (1% used as default when unavailable or for a region with an unspecified mill rate). Mortgage default insurance is not permitted on purchases that have valuations of $1 million or more, amortizations exceeding 25 years, or on refinance transactions.

    nesto Mortgage Experts

    Titles such as mortgage broker, mortgage agent, submortgage broker, mortgage salesperson, or principal broker are provincially regulated licensing terms with educational requirements specific to each province. Albeit, commonly, they may all be referred to as mortgage brokers. In Ontario, where mortgage agent is used as a designation, mortgage brokers or principal brokers have additional responsibility for compliance and training mortgage agents.

    Licensed mortgage professionals often use the industry norm of “mortgage broker,” “broker,” or “advisor” to refer to themselves. However, disclosure requirements for licensed mortgage professionals’ titles vary across each province in Canada. These disclosures require mortgage brokers to adhere to specific rules when using titles to represent their qualifications and expertise. The provinces have regulations and guidelines that govern the use of titles by mortgage brokers. These regulations aim to ensure transparency and protect consumers in the mortgage industry.

    Regulatory Titles

    In Ontario (FSRA), Mortgage Brokers and Agents both serve as the middle person between borrowers and lenders, helping clients find the most suitable mortgage options for their financing situation. A Mortgage Agent works under the supervision of a Mortgage Broker and assists in the mortgage application process. A Mortgage Broker may also be responsible for compliance requirements for their brokerage or a team.

    The provinces of Quebec (AMF) and Newfoundland (Digital & Government Service NL) both exclusively utilize the designation of Mortgage Broker as a licensing designation.

    British Columbia (BCFSA) has two distinct roles within the mortgage industry: the Submortgage Broker and the Mortgage Broker. These positions have specific responsibilities and functions that contribute to the overall process of securing mortgages for clients. The Submortgage Broker works under the supervision of a licensed Mortgage Broker and assists in various tasks, such as gathering client information, completing paperwork, and liaising with lenders. The Mortgage Broker oversees the entire mortgage application process, including assessing client needs, finding suitable mortgage options, negotiating terms, and ensuring compliance with regulations.

    In Alberta (RECA) and New Brunswick (FCNB), the distinction between a Mortgage Associate and a Mortgage Broker lies in their roles and responsibilities within the mortgage industry. A Mortgage Associate typically works under the supervision of a Mortgage Broker and assists in the mortgage application process gathering necessary documentation, and providing support to clients. A Mortgage Broker is licensed to independently negotiate and arrange mortgage loans on behalf of clients, offering a more comprehensive range of mortgage options and expertise in the field.

    In Saskatchewan (FCAA) and Nova Scotia (Government of Nova Scotia, Business Licensing), there are distinct roles for both Associate Mortgage Brokers and Mortgage Brokers. The critical difference lies in their level of experience and licensing requirements. Associate Mortgage Brokers work under the supervision of a licensed Mortgage Broker and are in the early stages of their career. They may assist with gathering client information and preparing mortgage applications. Mortgage Brokers have obtained the necessary qualifications and licences to operate independently and provide mortgage services directly to clients. They have the authority to negotiate mortgage terms, advise clients, and facilitate the mortgage process from start to finish.

    In Manitoba (MSC), a Salesperson is primarily responsible for promoting and selling products or services, while an Authorised Official holds the authority to make legally binding decisions on behalf of the organization. These roles have different levels of authority and expertise, with the Salesperson focusing on sales and the Authorised Official having broader decision-making powers and acting as the liaison between the brokerage and the regulator. 

    For a complete list of licensing terms in Canada, please see the Mortgage Broker Regulators’ Council of Canada (MBRCC) published list.


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