Buying a home is a significant financial commitment, and one of the first decisions you will need to make when getting a mortgage is whether to choose a fixed or variable mortgage. As a homeowner, the choice you make between a fixed and variable mortgage could impact your financial situation and the interest you pay over the life of the mortgage. 

Deciding whether a variable or fixed mortgage is the best option depends on which suits your needs and circumstances. This post will guide you through the specifics of both mortgage types, highlighting the key differences and the pros and cons of each.

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Key Takeaways

• Fixed mortgages offer stability and predictability as interest rates and mortgage payments remain consistent. 
• Variable mortgages are tied to the prime rate, and the interest charged can fluctuate over time. 
• Your financial situation, risk tolerance, and current and future rate projections should guide your choice between fixed- and variable-rate options.

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What’s the Difference Between Fixed and Variable Rates?

A fixed-rate mortgage has a fixed interest rate, meaning it will remain the same throughout the mortgage term. The interest and principal portions of your mortgage payment will remain the same regardless of changes in interest rates.

A variable mortgage has an interest rate that fluctuates, rising or falling in response to changes in the prime rate. Variable mortgages can either be: 

• Adjustable-rate (ARM): Mortgage payments adjust with changes to the prime rate throughout the term. The principal remains fixed; however, the interest component will fluctuate with changes to the prime rate. With an ARM, any changes to interest rates during your term will not impact your remaining amortization.
• Variable-rate (VRM): Mortgage payments remain fixed throughout the term. Any changes to the prime rate will affect your interest and principal. If interest rates increase, a larger portion of your mortgage payment will go toward interest, and less will go toward the principal. If interest rates decrease, a larger portion of your mortgage payment will go toward principal rather than interest. With a VRM, any change in interest rates during your term will affect your remaining amortization.

Pros & Cons of a Fixed Rate Mortgage

A fixed rate is beneficial for budgeting, as it provides financial predictability and stability, with mortgage payments remaining the same throughout the term. With fixed rates, you can lock in your rate and payment for a specified period, known as your term, typically 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, or 10 years. Having a fixed interest rate for the entire term can protect you from interest rate increases. 

Locking into a fixed rate for the entire term can also mean missing out on lower interest rates if they fall during your term. Even though a fixed rate will provide you with a stable and predictable mortgage payment for years, it will carry a significant interest rate differential penalty. If you decide to break the mortgage before the end of your term, say, to take advantage of lower interest rates, you must pay either the interest rate differential (IRD) or 3 months’ interest, whichever is higher.

Pros & Cons of a Variable Rate Mortgage

Variable rates are beneficial if interest rates decrease during your mortgage term. There is potential for significant cost savings by opting for a variable rate, as you are more likely to reduce interest costs over the long term. There is also the additional benefit of locking your mortgage into a fixed rate at any time, such as when interest rates start to increase, through an early renewal. Variable mortgages typically have lower overall fees to break the mortgage term, calculated as 3 months of interest. 

If interest rates rise and you don’t convert to a fixed-rate mortgage, you could end up paying significantly more interest. Variable rates can also be challenging to budget for, as your payments may fluctuate with changes in the prime rate, similar to ARMs. With VRMs, you risk having most of your payments go toward interest, meaning you could hit your trigger rate (where your mortgage payments no longer cover any principal) or trigger point (the balance owing is higher than the original loan amount), with the added risk of over-amortization.

Fixed vs Variable Mortgages

A well-known 2001 study by York University Professor Moshe Milevsky examined fixed and variable mortgage rates between 1950 and 2000. The study found that borrowers saved 90% of the time when they opted for a variable mortgage. The other 10% of the time, this was only sometimes true and heavily depended on various factors. 

The study concluded that borrowers are better off locking into a fixed rate if interest rates are low. It’s also important to note that financial markets may not repeat in the same way under completely new socioeconomic constraints as they did when the study was written over 20 years ago.

Which Is Right for You?

The interest rate differential (IRD) penalty on a fixed-rate makes this option only sometimes the most sensible one. A fixed-rate mortgage may be the best choice if you value stability and predictability, or are concerned that interest rates may rise.

If you’re comfortable with some level of risk, or if there’s a chance rates have peaked and will decline over the next few years, a variable mortgage may be the best choice. 

It’s always advisable to look at your financial situation holistically. At any given time, no 2 borrowers will have the same factors affecting their risk, needs, and goals related to borrowing or homeownership.

Comparing 5-Year Fixed and 5-Year Variable Rates Over Time

_{Source: BankofCanada.ca}

Historically, variable rates have often been much lower than fixed rates. However, this has not always been the case; at times, the difference between fixed and variable rates has been negligible.

The Canadian mortgage market has undergone significant changes in recent years, with variable rates occasionally surpassing those of fixed rates. This highlights the importance of closely monitoring market trends and considering future interest rate predictions, as well as personal factors, when deciding between fixed and variable mortgages.

Popularity Shifts Between Fixed and Variable Rates Over Time

Fixed-rate mortgages have traditionally been the more popular choice in Canada, largely because they offer payment certainty and protection against sudden interest rate changes. 

Borrower preferences tend to track interest rates, with popularity shifting as expectations about future rate movements change. When rates are falling or expected to decline, more borrowers are willing to accept more variability in exchange for potential savings. When rates are rising or there is market uncertainty, borrowers typically shift back to the stability of a fixed term. 

Between 2020 and 2022, variable mortgages gained significant popularity as interest rates fell to historic lows. In January 2020, variable rates accounted for just 7% of newly extended mortgages. By April 2021, they had overtaken fixed rates to become the most popular option, with 37% choosing variable. That trend peaked in January 2022, when variable mortgages accounted for 58% of new lending, then reversed sharply as rates rose, dropping to just 5% by July 2023.

More recently, variable rates regained popularity as interest rates declined. In January 2025, variable mortgages accounted for 38% of newly extended mortgages, surpassing 3- to 5-year fixed terms at 35%. As economic uncertainty resurfaced later in the year, borrower preferences shifted again, with 3- to 5-year fixed rates reclaiming the top spot, accounting for 43% of new mortgages, compared to 24% for variable rates.

What Canadian Borrowers Are Choosing in 2026

The more useful way to read current preferences is not fixed against variable, but long against short. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation reported that in the first quarter of 2026, 35.5% of new uninsured mortgages carried a variable rate and 49.5% carried a fixed term of less than 5 years. Only 14.9% took a fixed term of 5 years or longer, down from 22.8% in the first quarter of 2022. Insured borrowers moved the same way: 33.6% variable, 30.7% fixed under 5 years, and 35.7% fixed at 5 years or longer, down from 53.2% four years earlier.

Read together, that means more than 85% of new uninsured borrowers now hold either a variable rate or a fixed term that matures within 5 years. Both choices leave you exposed to whatever rates look like sooner, and that exposure is the trade-off worth understanding before you choose. As CMHC’s deputy chief economist put it, Canada’s mortgage system already passes interest-rate changes through to households relatively quickly because most borrowers renew every few years, unlike the United States and much of continental Europe where long-term fixed mortgages are common. Shorter terms speed that up further.

Two things explain the shift. Borrowers who expected rate cuts chose short terms so they could renew into them. And since the yield curve normalised in 2026, with the 1-year Government of Canada yield near 2.67% in August against a 5-year more than 60 basis points higher, shorter fixed terms have simply been cheaper. The first reason has weakened considerably, since market pricing now points to the Bank of Canada’s next move being an increase rather than a cut. The second still holds.

Drivers for Fixed and Variable Mortgage Rates

Fixed and variable mortgage rates are influenced by various economic factors, including inflation, unemployment, the Canadian and U.S. economies, and Bank of Canada policy. 

Variable mortgages are set based on the Bank of Canada (BoC) policy rate. Lenders adjust their prime rates when the bank changes the policy rate, either increasing or decreasing them in line with monetary policy. Most lenders and financial institutions set their prime rates at the policy rate plus 2.2%. 

Fixed mortgages follow bond yields of corresponding maturities. Bond yields are indirectly influenced by expectations about how the economy (inflation, unemployment, etc.) will perform and how the BoC will respond by adjusting the policy rate. Fixed-rate mortgages are typically priced at a spread of 1% to 2% above the corresponding bond yield. 

That difference in plumbing explains why the 2 rate types have moved apart in 2026. The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25% since October 2025, so variable pricing has barely moved all year. Over the same period, the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield rose from about 2.72% in late February to a 12-month high near 3.36% in August, and lenders raised fixed rates twice within 5 days that month. A borrower who watched only the Bank’s announcements would have missed every fixed-rate change this year.

What Rate Type Should You Choose If Rates Increase or Decrease?

Choosing a fixed rate may be the most sensible option if interest rates increase or are expected to rise. A fixed rate benefits those who don’t have room in their budget for any increases in their mortgage payments or who wish to ride out higher rates by locking in at a lower rate. 

Choosing a variable rate may be the most sensible option if interest rates decrease or are expected to in the near future. If rates decrease, those who have chosen a fixed rate will be locked into a higher rate for the term, with a significant penalty for breaking the mortgage. Those who choose a VRM will realise immediate cost savings, as more principal will be paid down, shortening the amortization period. Those who choose an ARM will benefit from immediate cost savings through lower mortgage payments. 

Fixed vs Variable Mortgage in Canada: Which Is Better Right Now?

Choosing between a fixed and a variable mortgage often depends on current economic conditions and interest rate expectations. The question of which option makes more sense in the current rate environment largely depends on a borrower’s risk tolerance. 

One piece of context matters more than any other in 2026. For most of 2024 and 2025, the case for a variable rate rested on rate cuts arriving and a borrower riding them down. That case has weakened. The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25% through 7 consecutive decisions, and market pricing has flipped from asking when the Bank will cut to asking when it will hike, with money markets pricing in a partial increase for December 2026 and most bank economists expecting the first increase in 2027. Nobody is forecasting a cut. Choosing variable today is a bet on stability, or on the market being wrong about increases, rather than a bet on falling payments.

Why Some Borrowers Are Choosing Fixed Rates

Many borrowers choose fixed rates when economic uncertainty is high or when they want predictable and stable payments. A fixed mortgage locks in an interest rate for the entire term, meaning the payment does not change even if interest rates rise.

Fixed mortgages may be appealing when:

• Interest rates are expected to remain elevated for some time
• Household budgets require predictable payments
• Borrowers are approaching a renewal and want to reduce risk

Why Variable Rates Are Still Attractive to Some Borrowers

Historically, variable mortgages have often had lower long-term borrowing costs over a full mortgage cycle. However, they can experience short-term volatility when rates increase. 

Variable rates may be attractive when:

• Markets expect interest rates to decline 
• Borrowers want to benefit from interest savings if rates fall
• Homeowners are comfortable with payment fluctuations

The Variable-Then-Convert Strategy

Some borrowers take a variable rate with the intention of converting to a fixed rate later, on the view that fixed pricing will ease. Most lenders allow a conversion partway through a variable term without a prepayment charge, so the mechanism is real, and the wider gap between fixed and variable pricing in 2026 has made it more visible.

The strategy carries 2 risks that are worth naming plainly. Your variable rate rises if the Bank of Canada raises its policy rate, which is the direction the market is currently pricing. And when you convert, you receive the fixed rate your lender offers on that day, not the rate available when you signed, so the plan only pays off if fixed rates fall in the meantime. Whether it suits you comes down to whether your budget can absorb an increase while you wait, which a payment shock calculator will show you in dollars.

The Key Question: Should I Choose a Variable or Fixed Mortgage Right Now?

The real decision between fixed and variable mortgages usually comes down to a borrower’s comfort with uncertainty. Fixed rates prioritise payment stability and budgeting certainty. Variable rates prioritise flexibility and the possibility of lower interest costs if rates decline.

Many Canadian borrowers choose their mortgage based on their financial resilience. Those with tighter budgets may prefer the stability of fixed payments, while borrowers with more flexibility may tolerate short-term fluctuations in exchange for potential savings.

What Canadian Mortgage Experts Often Recommend

Mortgage professionals often emphasize that the best mortgage type depends on personal circumstances rather than a single market forecast. Factors that usually influence the decision to go fixed or variable include:

• Income stability
• Debt levels
• How long the borrower plans to stay in the home
• Tolerance for interest rate fluctuations

Some borrowers also choose shorter terms, such as a 3-year fixed-rate mortgage, when they expect interest rates to fall. This provides borrowers with short-term payment stability and protection against rate fluctuations as they wait to take advantage of lower future rates. With the yield curve now upward-sloping, a shorter fixed term also tends to price below a 5-year fixed rate, so the choice costs less than it did during the tightening cycle.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) About Fixed versus Variable Mortgage Rates

Final Thoughts

Deciding between a variable and a fixed rate is a matter of personal choice and risk appetite. While variable mortgages have proven more cost-effective over time than fixed mortgages, some prefer the certainty of fixed principal-and-interest payments throughout their mortgage term.

To find the most suitable mortgage solution for your borrowing situation, contact nesto mortgage experts today.

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Why Choose nesto

At nesto, our commission-free mortgage experts, certified in multiple provinces, provide exceptional advice and service that exceeds industry standards. Our mortgage experts are salaried employees who provide impartial guidance on mortgage options tailored to your needs and are evaluated based on client satisfaction and the quality of their advice. nesto aims to transform the mortgage industry by providing honest advice and competitive rates through a 100% digital, transparent, and seamless process.

nesto is on a mission to offer a positive, empowering and transparent property financing experience – simplified from start to finish.

Contact our licensed and knowledgeable mortgage experts to find your best mortgage rate in Canada.

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