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Canadian Housing Market Outlook 2025

Canadian Housing Market Outlook 2025

Table of contents


    National Market Report Summary

    • The average selling price of a home in Canada decreased by 3.4% year-over-year to $682,600 in September 2025.
    • The average selling price of a single-family home in Canada decreased by 3.1% year-over-year to $759,800 in September 2025.
    • The average selling price of a townhouse/multiplex in Canada decreased by 3.6% year-over-year to $624,900 in September 2025.
    • The average selling price of a condo in Canada decreased by 5.4% year-over-year to $482,300 in September 2025.
    • The average rent in Canada decreased by 2.3% year-over-year to $2,109 for September 2025
    • October 17, 2025: Today’s lowest mortgage rate in Canada is for a 5-year fixed.

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    Composite Home Prices

    The average selling price of a home in Canada was $682,600 for the month of September 2025, that’s decreased by 0.6% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, Canadian home prices have decreased 3.4% over the last 12 months.

    Single-family Home Prices

    The average selling price of a single-family home in Canada was $759,800 for the month of September 2025, that’s decreased by 0.7% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, single-family home prices in Canada have decreased by 3.1% over the last 12 months.

    Townhouse and Multiplex Prices

    The average selling price of a townhouse in Canada was $624,900 for the month of September 2025, that’s decreased by 0.2% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, the price of a townhouse in Canada has decreased by 3.6% over the last 12 months.

    Condo Prices

    The average selling price of a condo in Canada was $482,300 for the month of September 2025, that’s decreased by 0.8% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, the price of a condo in Canada has decreased 5.4% over the last 12 months.

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    Canada Housing Market Summary

    Data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) indicates that the benchmark price of resale residential homes sold across Canada in September 2025 was $682,600, and it decreased by 3.4% compared to a year ago.

    CREA also reported a sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) of 51%, indicating a Balanced nationally for September 2025.


    Canadian Home Sales Reach 4-Year High Despite Modest September Slowdown

    According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), Canadian home sales slipped slightly in September, with national MLS systems reporting a 1.7% month-over-month decline. Despite the dip, September marked the strongest month for sales since 2021, underscoring the resilience of housing demand after a turbulent few years. Activity was down in Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa, and Montréal, but rose in Toronto and Winnipeg, keeping national momentum steady.

    CREA Senior Economist Shaun Cathcart noted that “with three years of pent-up demand still out there and more normal interest rates finally here, further upward momentum is expected into 2026.”

    Key Housing Metrics for September 2025

    • National home sales were down 1.7% MoM but up 5.2% YoY
    • New listings edged down 0.8% MoM
    • Sales-to-new listings ratio (SNLR) held at 50.7%, indicating balanced market conditions
    • The national average home sale price was $676,154, up 0.7% YoY
    • MLS Home Price Index was down 0.1% MoM and down 3.4% YoY
    • Months of inventory stayed at 4.4, below the long-term average of 5 months

    CREA Chair Valérie Paquin stated that “while there are more buyers in the market now than at almost any other point in the last four years, sales activity is still below average and well below the long-term trend.” She added that continued gradual improvement is expected as confidence builds through late 2025 and into 2026.

    Regional Market Performance Across Canada

    • Toronto: Home prices continued to ease, with the MLS Home Price Index down 0.5% MoM and 5.5% YoY. Prices have fallen roughly 25% since early 2022, improving affordability. Home resales have climbed 22% since spring, reflecting renewed buyer activity.
    • Vancouver: Home resales slipped 6% MoM but remained 1% above last year. Inventory reached decade highs, pushing the benchmark home price down 3.2% YoY to $1.14 million. Despite lower prices, affordability remains a significant barrier.
    • Calgary: Market conditions are shifting toward balance. Home sales dipped slightly while inventory hit a 7-year high, reducing buyer urgency. Benchmark prices were down 4% YoY, and additional supply from new construction is expected to keep prices soft.
    • Montréal: Conditions remained tight, sustaining moderate price growth. Single-family homes led gains, with prices up 7.2% YoY compared to 3.6% for condos.
    • Winnipeg and Regina: Both markets recorded small monthly increases, contributing to national stability despite uneven trends across these prairie provinces.

    National Real Estate Market Dynamics and Outlook

    CREA expects 473,093 home sales nationwide in 2025, a slight 1.1% decline from 2024. The average price is projected to edge down 1.4% to $676,705, driven mainly by softer conditions in Ontario and British Columbia. Gains between 4% and 8% are expected across most other provinces. In 2026, activity is forecast to rebound by 7.7% to 509,479 transactions, while the national average price is projected to rise 3.2% to $698,622, marking the highest sales level since 2021 and reinforcing steady market recovery.

    According to RBC Economics, the fall market began on a cautious note, shaped by affordability challenges and uneven regional trends. Expanding supply in Ontario, BC, and Alberta has improved buyer choice and negotiating power, while tight markets such as Montréal continue to see slow but steady price increases.

    • Buyers: Growing supply and stable prices are improving conditions for entry, especially as borrowing costs ease following Bank of Canada rate cuts.
    • Sellers: Competition is increasing in higher-priced provinces, making pricing strategy and timing more essential to attract buyers.
    • Renewers and Refinancers: Falling fixed rates and stable valuations are creating better opportunities for homeowners looking to refinance or renew at lower costs.

    The Canadian housing market continues to move toward a more balanced and stable phase, with 2026 shaping up to be a year of gradual recovery as lower interest rates, improved affordability, and steady demand support long-term stability.


    Month-over-Month Expectations for the Canadian Housing Market

    Transactions –  Number of Sales

    The number of sales in Canada was 39,938 during September 2025, that’s decreased by 1.7% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, sales in Canada have increased by 1.2% over the last 12 months.

    New Listings

    The number of new listings in Canada was 78,891 during September 2025, that’s decreased by 0.8% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, new listings in Canada have increased by 0.7% over the last 12 months.

    Real Estate Market

    The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) in Canada was 51% during September 2025, indicating a Balanced. On a monthly basis, that’s increased by 0.9% compared to the previous month. Canada’s yearly sales to new listings ratio has increased by 0.5% over the last 12 months.

    The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) measures the number of home sales compared to new listings. An SNLR under 40% suggests a buyer’s market in which buyers have the upper hand and more negotiating power. An SNLR between 40% and 60% is a balanced market, while an SNLR of over 60% is considered a seller’s market. 

    Annual Changes Composite Home Prices by Province

    Annual Changes to the National Composite Home Prices

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    National Average Asking Rent Down 3.2% YoY

    According to the recent data from the National Rental Report for October 2025, national rent prices continued to ease through September. “Asking rents in Canada decreased by 3.2% in September from last year’s record high to an average of $2,123, marking the twelfth consecutive month of year-over-year declines.” The report noted that this trend follows 38 months of rent increases between 2021 and 2024 and coincides with record apartment completions, fewer non-permanent residents, and a softer job market.

    YoY Decline Continues Nationally, as Short-Term Trend Stabilizes

    National rent prices have shown consistent downward movement over the past year. Rents decreased by 3.2% compared to the previous year, with the national average now at $2,123. They were also down 1.2% compared to 2 years ago, marking the first 2-year decline since January 2022. Month to month, the 3-month moving average remained stable, suggesting prices may be levelling off after a prolonged decline.

    Secondary Rental Markets Leading the Declines by Property Type Segmentation

    Across property types, rent prices were down in all categories. Purpose-built apartment rents decreased by 2.1% compared to last year, averaging $2,093. Condo rents were down 3.0% to an average of $2,226, while house and townhouse rents declined by 5.5% to $2,178.

    By unit type, rent prices fell across the board. 1-bedroom units decreased by 4.1% to $1,836, 2-bedroom units declined by 2.6% to $2,220, studio apartments dropped by 2.4% to $1,616, and 3-bedroom units recorded the smallest decline at 1.3% to $2,561.

    Larger Apartment Units Demonstrated Greater Stability Compared to Smaller Ones

    Larger apartments demonstrated relative resilience compared to smaller ones. 3-bedroom apartment rents increased by 0.9% to $2,755 for purpose-built rentals and by 2.4% to $2,923 for condos. In contrast, studio condo rents fell sharply, decreasing by 8.7% to $1,708.

    Provincial Rent Prices Showed the Steepest Annual Declines in BC and Alberta

    Across provinces, rent prices generally trended downward in September, with BC and Alberta leading the declines.

    • BC: average rent $2,430, decreased by 5.5% compared to last year
    • Alberta: average rent $1,734, decreased by 5.5% compared to last year
    • Ontario: average rent $2,316, decreased by 2.7% compared to last year
    • Nova Scotia: average rent $2,293, decreased by 2.2% compared to last year
    • Quebec: average rent $1,957, decreased by 0.5% compared to last year
    • Saskatchewan: average rent $1,374, decreased by 0.3% compared to last year
    • Manitoba: average rent $1,680, increased by 2.6% compared to last year

    Over a 2-year period, rent prices declined in BC by 8.5%, Ontario by 6.8%, and Quebec by 0.7%. In contrast, the Prairie provinces saw the fastest 3-year rent growth, with Manitoba up 27.1%, Saskatchewan up 26.5%, and Alberta up 20.5%.

    Rent Prices in Canada’s 6 Largest Urban Centres Decreased in September

    All 6 of Canada’s largest cities recorded annual rent declines for apartments in September. Vancouver saw the sharpest decrease, while Toronto recorded the smallest in over a year.

    • Vancouver: average rent $2,776, decreased by 8.2% compared to last year
    • Toronto: average rent $2,592, decreased by 2.9% compared to last year
    • Calgary: average rent $1,897, decreased by 7.4% compared to last year
    • Ottawa: average rent $2,190, decreased by 1.3% compared to last year
    • Montréal: average rent $1,981, decreased by 0.5% compared to last year; 3-bedroom units rose 3.2% to $2,810
    • Edmonton: average rent $1,573, decreased by 2.3% compared to last year; 3-bedroom units rose 4.9% to $2,035

    Metro Vancouver Remains Canada’s Most Expensive Market While Alberta Holds the Lowest Rent Prices

    Rent prices remained highest in Metro Vancouver and surrounding markets, while Alberta continued to offer Canada’s lowest costs for renters.

    • Most expensive cities: North Vancouver ($2,985), Richmond ($2,809), Burnaby ($2,611), Coquitlam ($2,559), Oakville ($2,701), Westmount ($2,548)
    • Most affordable cities: Lloydminster ($1,235), Medicine Hat ($1,314), Fort McMurray ($1,349), Regina ($1,402), Saskatoon ($1,437), Quebec City ($1,628), Sarnia ($1,679), Winnipeg ($1,691)

    Kingston and Vaudreuil-Dorion Recorded the Fastest Rent Growth Among Mid-Sized Cities

    Kingston continued to lead the nation in rent price increases, followed by gains in select smaller cities.

    • Fastest growth: Kingston up 19.9%, Vaudreuil-Dorion and St. Albert up 8.5%, Abbotsford up 7.0%, Windsor up 5.5%
    • Sharpest declines: Coquitlam down 15.0%, Surrey down 11.7%, New Westminster down 10.1%, East York down 13.0%

    BC and Alberta Experienced the Most Significant Declines in Shared Accommodation Rent Prices

    Shared accommodation rents were lower across all major provinces, returning to levels last seen 2 years ago. Combined average rent across 4 provinces: $943, decreased by 6.6% compared to last year.

    • BC: decreased by 7.4% to $1,120
    • Alberta: decreased by 7.1% to $841
    • Ontario: decreased by 6.9% to $1,026
    • Quebec: decreased by 3.7% to $870

    Major cities: Vancouver decreased by 14.7% to $1,268, Calgary decreased by 8.4% to $850, Montréal decreased by 3.2% to $901, Toronto unchanged at $1,233, Edmonton up by 0.5% to $794, Ottawa up by 16.2% to $1,108

    Sustained rent moderation, as seen through shelter price inflation, should help the Bank of Canada maintain a gradual rate-cutting path through 2026, supporting improved mortgage affordability across Canada.

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    Canada Market Rents Summary

    The average rent in Canada was $2,109 for the month of September 2025, which decreased by 2.3% on a year-over-year basis.

    The average rent for a bachelor apartment in Canada was $1,618 for the month of September 2025, which decreased by 2.3% on a year-over-year basis.

    The average rent for a 1-bedroom apartment in Canada was $1,877 for the month of September 2025, which decreased by 3.9% on a year-over-year basis.

    The average rent for a 2-bedroom apartment in Canada was $2,291 for the month of September 2025, which decreased by 2.4% on a year-over-year basis.

    The average rent for a 3-bedroom apartment in Canada was $1,877 for the month of September 2025, which decreased by 2.4% on a year-over-year basis.

    How Does Renting Compare with Homeownership in Today’s Housing Market?

    Each $100,000 in mortgage balance costs an average of $520.07 per month on nesto’s lowest fixed 5-year rate at and $514.13 per month on nesto’s lowest adjustable 5-year rate at . For each $100,000 in mortgage balance, a 0.25% change in Canada’s policy rate impacts the monthly payment by $13.51. Rates used for calculation are those offered on insured purchases with less than a 20% downpayment on a 25-year amortization. Canada’s policy rate is 2.50%, and nesto’s prime rate is 4.70%.

    Rental Price Changes by City

    Rental Price Changes by Province

    Rental Price Growth by Housing Type

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    Frequently Asked Questions on Canadian Housing Market Outlook for 2025

    Will 2025 be a good year to buy a house in Canada?

    2025 could be an ideal year for homebuyers as housing prices in Canada are expected to stabilize, offering a window of opportunity for those looking to enter the market. With demand expected to remain strong in big cities like Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal, buyers should act quickly in regions where prices are more affordable. The potential for increased housing inventory and fewer price surges will make homeownership more attainable for financially prepared buyers.

    Are Canadian home prices expected to drop in 2025?

    Home prices in Canada are expected to stabilize rather than decline sharply in 2025. While some regions may experience slight price corrections, factors like low housing supply, population growth, and continued demand will keep prices relatively steady. Major urban centres may see modest increases, while smaller markets could experience greater affordability. Monitoring housing trends will help buyers identify areas with more favourable pricing.

    Will Canada’s housing market still be in a bubble in 2025?

    Speculation about a housing bubble remains, but experts predict Canada’s real estate market is entering a period of stabilization rather than collapse. Housing shortages, particularly in high-demand regions like Toronto and Vancouver, continue to prevent significant price drops. While affordability challenges persist, Canada’s market is more likely to experience a soft landing, with home prices balancing as supply improves.

    What are the predictions for Canada’s housing prices in 2025?

    Home prices in Canada are predicted to remain stable, with slight increases in major markets. Supply-demand imbalances will likely drive growth, particularly in regions with limited housing inventory. Cities like Vancouver, Montreal, and Toronto will remain competitive due to ongoing demand, while smaller markets may offer better affordability for buyers. Monitoring regional price forecasts will help identify areas with stable or lower home prices.

    How will population growth impact Canada’s housing prices in 2025?

    Canada’s strong population growth will continue to put upward pressure on home prices in 2025. Increased demand for homes, particularly in urban centres, will outpace the growth in housing supply, maintaining competitive prices. Efforts to improve construction and address supply shortages may help balance the market over time, but high-demand areas are expected to see continued price resilience.

    Will housing affordability improve in 2025?

    Housing affordability in Canada will remain a key challenge in 2025, especially in cities like Toronto and Vancouver, where demand far exceeds supply. While home prices are stabilizing, affordability improvements will depend on increased housing inventory and more balanced market conditions. Buyers looking for affordable options should explore smaller markets or up-and-coming regions where prices remain more accessible.


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