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Ontario Housing Market Outlook 2026

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Ontario Sales Rise While Prices Keep Sliding

According to the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) for June 2026, provincial home sales rose 5.5% year over year to 18,051 units, sitting 2.3% above the five-year average but still 12.3% below the 10-year average, even as the MLS Home Price Index composite fell 4.6% to $753,300.

  • The composite benchmark price came in at $753,300, down 4.6% year over year, with apartments posting the steepest decline at 8.0% and townhouses down 6.6%.
  • New listings fell 5.5% year over year to 43,442, while active listings dropped 5.1% to 75,759, and months of inventory eased to 4.2 from 4.7 a year earlier.
  • The average sale price slipped 2.5% to $831,595, while total dollar volume still climbed 2.9% to $15 billion on the back of higher sales activity.

If you’re shopping in a market where prices still favour buyers, speak with nesto mortgage experts and compare current mortgage rates in Ontario before you make an offer.


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Ontario Housing Market Highlights

  • The average selling price of a home in Ontario decreased by 4.6% year-over-year to $753,300 in June.
  • The average selling price of a single-family home in Ontario decreased by 4.2% year-over-year to $836,900 in June.
  • The average selling price of a townhouse/multiplex in Ontario decreased by 6.6% year-over-year to $592,200 in June.
  • The average selling price of a condo in Ontario decreased by 8% year-over-year to $491,500 in June.
  • The average rent in Ontario decreased by 5.3% year-over-year to $2,233 for June.
  • July 21, 2026: Today’s lowest mortgage rate in Ontario is 4.09% for a 5-year fixed.

Data from the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) indicates that the average price of resale residential homes sold across Ontario in June was $753,300, and it decreased of 4.6% compared to a year ago.

OREA reported a sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) of 42%, indicating Balanced market conditions in Ontario for June.


Composite Home Prices

The average selling price of a home in Ontario was $753,300 for the month of June, that’s decreased by 0.5% month over month. On a year-over-year basis, Ontario home prices have decreased 4.6% year-over-year.

Single-family Home Prices

The average selling price of a single-family home in Ontario was $836,900 for the month of June, that’s decreased by 0.5% month over month. On a year-over-year basis, single-family home prices in Ontario have decreased by 4.2% year-over-year.

Townhouse and Multiplex Prices

The average selling price of a townhouse in Ontario was $592,200 for the month of June, that’s decreased by 0.8% month over month. On a year-over-year basis, the price of a townhouse in Ontario has decreased by 6.6% year-over-year.

Condo Prices

The average selling price of a condo in Ontario was $491,500 for the month of June, that’s decreased by 0.3% month over month. On a year-over-year basis, the price of a condo in Ontario has decreased 8% year-over-year.

Transactions –  Number of Sales

The number of sales in Ontario was 18,051 during June, that’s increased by 4.7% month over month. On a year-over-year basis, sales in Ontario have increased by 6.4% year-over-year.

New Listings

The number of new listings in Ontario was 43,442 during June, that’s decreased by 2.7% month over month. On a year-over-year basis, new listings in Ontario have decreased by 3.5% year-over-year.

Real Estate Market

The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) in Ontario was 42% during June, indicating a Balanced. On a monthly basis, that’s increased by 7.6% month over month. Ontario’s yearly sales to new listings ratio has increased by 10.3% year-over-year.

The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) measures the number of home sales compared to new listings. An SNLR below 40% indicates a buyer’s market, where buyers hold the upper hand and greater negotiating power. An SNLR between 40% and 60% is a balanced market, while an SNLR of over 60% is considered a seller’s market. 

Annual Changes to Regional Composite Home Prices in Ontario

Annual Changes to the Composite Home Price in Ontario


Best Mortgage Rates

4.14% 3-year fixed
4.09% 5-year fixed
3.60% 3-year variable
3.40% 5-year variable

Check More Rates

Ontario Market Rents Snapshot

The average rent in Ontario was $2,233 for June, which decreased by 5.3% year over year.

The average rent for a 1-bedroom apartment in Ontario was $1,953 for the month of June, which decreased by 5.3% year over year.

The average rent for a 2-bedroom apartment in Ontario was $2,422 for the month of June, which decreased by 5.3% year over year.

Rental Price Changes by City

RankCityTotal Average1 Bedroom2 Bedrooms
1North Vancouver$2,983$2,457$3,363
2Vancouver$2,723$2,392$3,336
3North York$2,563$2,154$2,765
4Kanata$2,551$2,282$2,766
5Toronto$2,543$2,213$2,912
6Burnaby$2,522$2,135$2,766
7Coquitlam$2,504$2,083$2,687
8Oakville$2,438$2,170$2,657
9Etobicoke$2,427$2,084$2,629
10Burlington$2,381$2,064$2,470
11Mississauga$2,360$2,056$2,437
12Halifax$2,351$2,051$2,628
13Langley$2,285$1,965$2,439
14Vaughan$2,277$2,028$2,586
15Victoria$2,258$1,999$2,642
16Brampton$2,231$1,962$2,355
17Ajax$2,217$1,834$2,262
18Scarborough$2,210$1,862$2,292
19Guelph$2,193$1,901$2,276
20Surrey$2,187$1,803$2,239
21Ottawa$2,179$1,956$2,462
22Barrie$2,144$1,874$2,164
23New Westminster$2,132$1,888$2,640
24Waterloo$2,115$1,918$2,253
25Kingston$2,111$1,875$2,232
26Kelowna$2,110$1,831$2,241
27Nanaimo$2,102$1,847$2,313
28Laval$2,089$1,726$2,350
29East York$2,077$1,829$2,335
30Cambridge$2,075$1,836$2,141
31Airdrie$2,027$1,477$1,814
32Peterborough$2,000$1,755$1,968
33Brossard$1,987$1,708$2,246
34Greater Sudbury$1,980$1,702$2,140
35Oshawa$1,966$1,740$2,015
36Montreal$1,951$1,780$2,257
37Kamloops$1,949$1,796$2,034
38Hamilton$1,939$1,680$2,255
39London$1,932$1,664$2,068
40Brantford$1,923$1,779$2,029
41Calgary$1,886$1,515$1,853
42Kitchener$1,865$1,662$2,048
43Niagara Falls$1,861$1,607$1,976
44St. Catharines$1,827$1,570$1,904
45Gatineau$1,781$1,593$1,888
46Welland$1,762$1,533$1,937
47Côte Saint-Luc$1,705$1,450$1,971
48Windsor$1,702$1,488$1,921
49Winnipeg$1,678$1,472$1,770
50Sarnia$1,664$1,477$1,709
51Edmonton$1,610$1,292$1,632
52Saskatoon$1,544$1,341$1,561
53Lethbridge$1,534$1,321$1,543
54Quebec City$1,508$1,292$1,675
55Red Deer$1,508$1,337$1,499
56Regina$1,457$1,309$1,523
57Fort McMurray$1,413$1,212$1,443
58Medicine Hat$1,370$1,238$1,374
59Lloydminster$1,306$1,026$1,378
60St. John's$1,172$1,061$1,268
Average Rent by City
Source: Rentals.ca Network Data & Urbanation Inc.

Rental Price Changes by Province

Rental Price Growth by Housing Type

How Does Renting Compare with Homeownership Across Ontario?

Each $100,000 in mortgage balance costs an average of $530.91 per month on nesto’s lowest fixed 5-year rate at 4.09% and $495.28 per month on nesto’s lowest adjustable 5-year rate at 3.40%.

For each $100,000 in mortgage balance, a 0.25% change in Canada’s policy rate impacts the monthly payment by $13.42. Rates used for calculation are those offered on insured purchases with less than a 20% downpayment on a 25-year amortization. Canada’s policy rate is 2.25%, and nesto’s prime rate is 4.45%.


We’re curious…

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) About the Ontario Housing Market Outlook for 2026

Why has Ontario experienced some of the steepest home price declines in Canada?

Ontario has experienced sharper declines in home prices because rapid price growth during the pandemic pushed them above median incomes, unlike in other provinces. As inventory increased and demand slowed, home prices experienced some of the steepest declines nationally.

Are Ontario home prices expected to continue falling in 2026?

Ontario home prices are expected to stabilize rather than fall sharply in 2026, although price growth is likely to remain subdued due to affordability pressures.

Is Ontario expected to shift toward a buyer’s market in 2026?

Several Ontario regions are expected to shift toward buyer-friendly conditions through 2026 as listings rise, and demand remains constrained by income qualification limits.

What is the main factor holding back Ontario’s housing recovery in 2026?

In 2026, affordability remains the primary factor impeding Ontario’s housing recovery, even as mortgage rates stabilize.

Will Ontario recover more quickly or more slowly than other provinces in 2026?

Throughout 2026, Ontario’s housing recovery is expected to be slower than in many other provinces due to higher home prices and deeper corrections.


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About the contributors

Written by

Samson Solomon

Mortgage Content Expert

Samson is a Mortgage Content Expert at nesto with over 25 years of experience in retail banking, financial advising and…