Ontario Housing Market Outlook 2026

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Ontario Carries the Weight of Every Stress Point in the Canadian Housing Market

According to the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) for April 2026, residential sales across the province came in at 14,927 units, up a modest 1.3% from April 2025 but still 13.2% below the five-year average and 23.3% below the 10-year average. The overall MLS HPI composite benchmark fell to $752,400, down 5.7% from a year ago. Active listings reached 67,038 at month’s end, the highest April level in more than a decade. Ontario, as a province, isn’t just experiencing a soft market. It’s absorbing the highest concentration of economic stress in the country.

• The average resale price across Ontario was $839,112, down 1.8% from April 2025. The year-to-date average is $812,508, a 4.1% decline from the first four months of last year. For context, the national average rose by 2.2% over the same period, meaning Ontario is underperforming the rest of the country by more than 6 percentage points. The single-family benchmark dropped 5.3% annually to $836,100, while new listings were essentially unchanged at 41,610. Total dollar volume came in at $12.5 billion, nearly flat from April 2025, suggesting transactions are concentrated in the mid-range rather than the high end.
• Ontario now accounts for 43% of all unemployed Canadians, more than double Québec’s share, with a provincial unemployment rate of 7.6%. Toronto mortgage delinquencies are up 45% year-over-year, and Ontario as a whole has risen above the national delinquency average for the first time in over a decade. The province is also experiencing active population contraction as of Q1 2026, with departures of non-permanent residents outpacing arrivals. These pressures are reinforcing each other: job uncertainty reduces buying confidence, which keeps inventory elevated, which puts downward pressure on prices, which pushes some overleveraged owners toward arrears.
• The structural story beneath the cycle is worth watching. According to CMHC, 54% of mortgages extended to first-time homebuyers by chartered banks in Q4 2025 were insured, up from the mid-40s before the federal government extended 30-year amortizations and raised the insured purchase price cap to $1.5 million in December 2024. That policy shift is quietly reshaping how Ontario buyers enter the market. At the same time, OSFI’s removal of the stress test for uninsured borrowers switching lenders at renewal has led to a 34% increase in renewal switches, with those who shopped their renewal saving roughly eight percentage points more on rate movement than those who stayed put. The borrowers under the most pressure are also the ones with the most to gain from exploring their options.

Ontario’s correction is creating real opportunities for prepared buyers, but the window looks different depending on whether you’re buying a condo in Toronto, a detached home in the suburbs, or a first property in a mid-sized city. The right mortgage strategy depends on your unique situation. Speak with nesto mortgage experts to find the structure that works for your purchase or renewal in Ontario.

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Ontario Housing Market Highlights

• The average selling price of a home in Ontario decreased by 5.7% year-over-year to $752,400 in April.
• The average selling price of a single-family home in Ontario decreased by 5.3% year-over-year to $836,100 in April.
• The average selling price of a townhouse/multiplex in Ontario decreased by 7% year-over-year to $597,200 in April.
• The average selling price of a condo in Ontario decreased by 8.8% year-over-year to $492,800 in April.
• The average rent in Ontario decreased by 6.2% year-over-year to $2,226 for April.
• May 25, 2026: Today’s lowest mortgage rate in Ontario is 4.14% for a 5-year fixed.

Data from the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) indicates that the average price of resale residential homes sold across Ontario in April was $752,400, and it decreased of 5.7% compared to a year ago.

OREA reported a sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) of 36%, indicating Buyers market conditions in Ontario for April.

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Composite Home Prices

Single-family Home Prices

Townhouse and Multiplex Prices

Condo Prices

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Ontario Market Rents Snapshot

The average rent in Ontario was $2,226 for April, which decreased by 6.2% year over year.

The average rent for a 1-bedroom apartment in Ontario was $1,964 for the month of April, which decreased by 6% year over year.

The average rent for a 2-bedroom apartment in Ontario was $2,420 for the month of April, which decreased by 4% year over year.

Rental Price Changes by City

Rank	City	Total Average	1 Bedroom	2 Bedrooms	Year-over-Year Change
1	North Vancouver	$3,001	$2,523	$3,358	−5.7%
2	Vancouver	$2,679	$2,358	$3,317	−2.8%
3	Toronto	$2,504	$2,208	$2,863	−2.1%
4	North York	$2,488	$2,098	$2,654	−1.4%
5	Burnaby	$2,484	$2,119	$2,774	−6.7%
6	Oakville	$2,464	$2,201	$2,582	−13.9%
7	Etobicoke	$2,431	$2,111	$2,639	−4.1%
8	Kanata	$2,424	$2,248	$2,569	−7.9%
9	Coquitlam	$2,416	$2,125	$2,677	−9.7%
10	Burlington	$2,376	$2,124	$2,442	−5.2%
11	Mississauga	$2,355	$2,062	$2,440	−5.4%
12	Vaughan	$2,314	$2,078	$2,586	−1.3%
13	Langley	$2,289	$1,946	$2,456	−1.7%
14	Victoria	$2,271	$1,968	$2,607	−2.2%
15	Halifax	$2,256	$2,030	$2,534	−2.4%
16	Scarborough	$2,250	$1,895	$2,373	−6.3%
17	Brampton	$2,228	$1,939	$2,283	0.90%
18	Kingston	$2,228	$1,887	$2,333	12.40%
19	Waterloo	$2,210	$2,029	$2,358	−3.2%
20	Ajax	$2,192	$1,983	$2,196	−0.1%
21	East York	$2,186	$1,863	$2,498	−3.0%
22	Guelph	$2,171	$1,917	$2,231	−6.4%
23	Ottawa	$2,151	$1,945	$2,472	−4.0%
24	New Westminster	$2,145	$1,942	$2,684	−1.1%
25	Barrie	$2,128	$1,912	$2,229	−1.3%
26	Surrey	$2,108	$1,801	$2,183	−9.8%
27	Laval	$2,073	$1,708	$2,360	11.20%
28	Kamloops	$2,064	$1,837	$2,103	−3.3%
29	Kelowna	$2,051	$1,739	$2,219	−4.0%
30	Greater Sudbury	$2,026	$1,795	$2,186	−10.8%
31	Cambridge	$2,019	$1,812	$2,109	−4.5%
32	Nanaimo	$2,015	$1,820	$2,213	1.20%
33	Peterborough	$2,008	$1,729	$1,984	−1.3%
34	Airdrie	$1,999	$1,501	$1,771	0.30%
35	Hamilton	$1,981	$1,717	$2,317	6.20%
36	Montreal	$1,971	$1,793	$2,341	3.00%
37	Oshawa	$1,964	$1,713	$2,016	−5.6%
38	Brantford	$1,929	$1,752	$2,103	4.90%
39	London	$1,925	$1,680	$2,055	−4.6%
40	Brossard	$1,913	$1,726	$2,030	−12.5%
41	Kitchener	$1,889	$1,714	$2,061	−6.6%
42	Calgary	$1,869	$1,522	$1,842	−3.7%
43	Niagara Falls	$1,845	$1,688	$1,999	−3.4%
44	St. Catharines	$1,800	$1,621	$1,895	−3.9%
45	Gatineau	$1,780	$1,592	$1,895	−8.0%
46	Welland	$1,769	$1,576	$1,927	5.10%
47	Côte Saint-Luc	$1,751	$1,443	$2,006	−13.2%
48	Sarnia	$1,693	$1,493	$1,789	−4.5%
49	Winnipeg	$1,662	$1,446	$1,793	0.80%
50	Windsor	$1,615	$1,482	$1,790	−9.1%
51	Edmonton	$1,603	$1,279	$1,637	−1.0%
52	Red Deer	$1,585	$1,340	$1,523	−0.7%
53	Saskatoon	$1,534	$1,323	$1,562	−0.8%
54	Lethbridge	$1,500	$1,332	$1,519	−1.1%
55	Quebec City	$1,481	$1,323	$1,683	−3.3%
56	Regina	$1,452	$1,301	$1,533	1.60%
57	Medicine Hat	$1,403	$1,240	$1,394	0.30%
58	Fort McMurray	$1,357	$1,164	$1,410	−1.0%
59	Lloydminster	$1,264	$1,069	$1,333	6.10%
60	St. John's	$1,125	$1,073	$1,249	5.60%

Average Rent by City
Source: Rentals.ca Network Data & Urbanation Inc.

Rental Price Changes by Province

Rental Price Growth by Housing Type

How Does Renting Compare with Homeownership Across Ontario?

Each $100,000 in mortgage balance costs an average of $533.64 per month on nesto’s lowest fixed 5-year rate at 4.14% and $495.28 per month on nesto’s lowest adjustable 5-year rate at 3.40%.

For each $100,000 in mortgage balance, a 0.25% change in Canada’s policy rate impacts the monthly payment by $13.23. Rates used for calculation are those offered on insured purchases with less than a 20% downpayment on a 25-year amortization. Canada’s policy rate is 2.25%, and nesto’s prime rate is 4.45%.

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) About the Ontario Housing Market Outlook for 2026

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Why Choose nesto

At nesto, our commission-free mortgage experts, certified in multiple provinces, provide exceptional advice and service that exceeds industry standards. Our mortgage experts are salaried employees who provide impartial guidance on mortgage options tailored to your needs and are evaluated based on client satisfaction and the quality of their advice. nesto aims to transform the mortgage industry by providing honest advice and competitive rates through a 100% digital, transparent, and seamless process.

nesto is on a mission to offer a positive, empowering and transparent property financing experience – simplified from start to finish.

Contact our licensed and knowledgeable mortgage experts to find your best mortgage rate in Canada.

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