Ontario Housing Market Outlook 2026

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Ontario Homebuyers Gaining Leverage

Ontario’s housing market has entered 2026 with one clear theme: supply is outpacing demand. Sales remain well below historical averages, while active listings sit at their highest January level in more than a decade. That imbalance is shifting negotiating power toward buyers, especially in the Greater Toronto Area and surrounding suburban markets.

Why Are Home Sales Down in Ontario?

Sales are weaker not only compared to last year but also relative to long-term norms. Although borrowing costs declined following Bank of Canada rate cuts in late 2025, buyers have not returned in force. Lower rates help affordability on paper, but confidence drives transactions. Trade uncertainty, job market caution, and high living costs are delaying purchase decisions. Rate cuts alone have not been enough to reignite demand.

Are Home Prices Falling in Ontario?

Home prices are trending lower in several major markets, particularly in the GTA condo segment and suburban commuter cities. Investor-heavy markets are under the most pressure due to higher carrying costs and softer rental growth.

Detached and family-sized homes are holding up better than smaller investor-oriented condos. Northern Ontario markets have shown greater resilience, underscoring the importance of local economies. Markets less tied to speculative condo supply or international capital have experienced smaller price swings.

Is Ontario in a Buyer’s Market?

Inventory levels suggest yes, Ontario is in a buyer’s market. Months of inventory exceed long-run averages, indicating that it would take longer to clear existing inventory at the current sales pace. Buyers have more choices and greater negotiating power than in the peak years.

However, “buyer’s market” does not mean prices will collapse. Elevated supply is preventing rapid price growth, but a sharp decline would require a major labour market shock, which current forecasts do not indicate.

What Is Happening With New Construction in Ontario?

New housing starts show a diverging trend. Condominium construction is slowing due to weak pre-construction sales and stricter underwriting. Meanwhile, purpose-built rental projects remain active, supported by institutional investors and policy incentives.

Rental vacancy rates are expected to rise modestly as new supply enters the market, thereby slowing rent growth. That reduces investor urgency in the condo resale market.

What Happens Next for Ontario in 2026?

Most forecasts indicate a soft first half, followed by gradual stabilization if economic confidence in the province improves. Home sales are expected to rise modestly but remain below the 10-year average. Home price growth is likely muted until excess inventory clears.

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Ontario Housing Market Highlights

• The average selling price of a home in Ontario decreased by 7% year-over-year to $745,800 in January.
• The average selling price of a single-family home in Ontario decreased by 6.6% year-over-year to $828,600 in January.
• The average selling price of a townhouse/multiplex in Ontario decreased by 8.7% year-over-year to $590,200 in January.
• The average selling price of a condo in Ontario decreased by 9.1% year-over-year to $496,200 in January.
• The average rent in Ontario decreased by 3.5% year-over-year to $2,275 for January.
• February 20, 2026: Today’s lowest mortgage rate in Ontario is for a 5-year fixed.

Data from the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) indicates that the average price of resale residential homes sold across Ontario in January was $745,800, and it decreased of 7% compared to a year ago.

OREA reported a sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) of 32%, indicating Buyers market conditions in Ontario for January.

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Composite Home Prices

Single-family Home Prices

Townhouse and Multiplex Prices

Condo Prices

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Ontario Market Rents Snapshot

The average rent in Ontario was $2,275 for January, which decreased by 3.5% year over year.

The average rent for a 1-bedroom apartment in Ontario was $1,991 for the month of January, which decreased by 5.6% year over year.

The average rent for a 2-bedroom apartment in Ontario was $2,425 for the month of January, which decreased by 4.4% year over year.

Rental Price Changes by City

Rank	CITY	Total Average	1 Bedroom	2 Bedrooms	Year-over-Year Change
1	North Vancouver	$2,958	$2,469	$3,287	−2.2%
2	Vancouver	$2,650	$2,362	$3,279	−4.8%
3	Oakville	$2,502	$2,216	$2,576	−19.3%
4	Toronto	$2,504	$2,183	$2,801	−8.6%
5	North York	$2,528	$2,127	$2,688	−1.9%
6	Burnaby	$2,505	$2,144	$2,809	−6.7%
7	Coquitlam	$2,524	$2,107	$2,765	−3.9%
8	Mississauga	$2,446	$2,043	$2,454	−8.6%
9	Etobicoke	$2,382	$2,102	$2,562	−8.3%
10	Kanata	$2,412	$2,238	$2,502	−17.3%
11	Brampton	$2,361	$1,910	$2,208	−7.2%
12	Kingston	$2,315	$1,968	$2,502	22.0%
13	Scarborough	$2,318	$1,910	$2,417	−5.6%
14	Vaughan	$2,266	$2,082	$2,499	−6.7%
15	Greater Sudbury	$2,067	$1,918	$2,167	−2.4%
16	Langley	$2,344	$2,071	$2,465	−1.8%
17	Burlington	$2,376	$2,065	$2,443	−5.0%
18	Ajax	$2,248	$1,814	$2,229	−4.5%
19	Halifax	$2,270	$2,052	$2,500	0.10%
20	Victoria	$2,224	$1,942	$2,605	−5.1%
21	Guelph	$2,159	$1,979	$2,291	−4.0%
22	Kelowna	$2,015	$1,686	$2,124	−10.8%
23	Surrey	$2,124	$1,818	$2,249	−8.5%
24	Ottawa	$2,127	$1,945	$2,458	−2.8%
25	New Westminster	$2,120	$1,872	$2,611	−7.4%
26	Waterloo	$2,230	$2,028	$2,367	−2.7%
27	Oshawa	$2,121	$1,753	$2,052	−5.4%
28	Nanaimo	$2,055	$1,820	$2,328	8.20%
29	Barrie	$2,154	$1,904	$2,184	−1.2%
30	East York	$2,302	$1,963	$2,554	−4.3%
31	Hamilton	$2,069	$1,753	$2,086	0.40%
32	Brossard	$2,066	$1,794	$2,169	1.60%
33	Cambridge	$2,057	$1,797	$2,101	−6.4%
34	Kamloops	$1,992	$1,805	$2,161	5.60%
35	Airdrie	$1,954	$1,450	$1,739	−0.9%
36	Laval	$2,098	$1,710	$2,348	11.00%
37	Kitchener	$2,013	$1,819	$2,130	−4.5%
38	Brantford	$1,979	$1,802	$2,058	0.50%
39	Niagara Falls	$1,929	$1,684	$1,899	−9.4%
40	Montreal	$1,913	$1,710	$2,216	−1.3%
41	London	$1,916	$1,650	$2,051	−4.5%
42	Gatineau	$1,885	$1,655	$2,072	−4.7%
43	Calgary	$1,871	$1,535	$1,850	−3.9%
44	Peterborough	$1,973	$1,677	$1,991	−2.3%
45	St. Catharines	$1,827	$1,608	$1,945	−1.2%
46	Welland	$1,675	$1,506	$1,823	−0.4%
47	Windsor	$1,658	$1,523	$1,839	−0.1%
48	Sarnia	$1,728	$1,508	$1,833	−3.9%
49	Winnipeg	$1,664	$1,409	$1,796	3.10%
50	Côte Saint-Luc	$1,535	$1,402	$1,787	−21.4%
51	Edmonton	$1,591	$1,279	$1,619	−2.6%
52	Saskatoon	$1,566	$1,350	$1,554	4.50%
53	Lethbridge	$1,528	$1,369	$1,570	0.70%
54	Quebec City	$1,485	$1,364	$1,646	−12.3%
55	Red Deer	$1,529	$1,219	$1,489	5.90%
56	Regina	$1,466	$1,255	$1,538	4.80%
57	Fort McMurray	$1,370	$1,167	$1,419	−1.3%
58	Medicine Hat	$1,372	$1,217	$1,395	0.10%
59	Lloydminster	$1,235	$1,025	$1,340	7.70%
60	St. John's	$1,238	$1,086	$1,250	−6.4%

Average Rent by City
Source: Rentals.ca Network Data & Urbanation Inc.

Rental Price Changes by Province

Rental Price Growth by Housing Type

How Does Renting Compare with Homeownership Across Ontario?

Each $100,000 in mortgage balance costs an average of $509.35 per month on nesto’s lowest fixed 5-year rate at and $495.28 per month on nesto’s lowest adjustable 5-year rate at .

For each $100,000 in mortgage balance, a 0.25% change in Canada’s policy rate impacts the monthly payment by $13.23. Rates used for calculation are those offered on insured purchases with less than a 20% downpayment on a 25-year amortization. Canada’s policy rate is 2.25%, and nesto’s prime rate is 4.45%.

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) About the Ontario Housing Market Outlook for 2026

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Contact our licensed and knowledgeable mortgage experts to find your best mortgage rate in Canada.

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