Ontario Housing Market Outlook 2025
Table of contents
Ontario Market Report Summary
- The average selling price of a home in Ontario decreased by 6.9% year-over-year to $804,700 in June 2025.
- The average selling price of a single-family home in Ontario decreased by 6.8% year-over-year to $891,900 in June 2025.
- The average selling price of a townhouse/multiplex in Ontario decreased by 8% year-over-year to $642,400 in June 2025.
- The average selling price of a condo in Ontario decreased by 8.8% year-over-year to $537,100 in June 2025.
- The average rent in Ontario decreased by 2% year-over-year to $2,329 for June 2025.
- July 23, 2025: Today’s lowest mortgage rate in Ontario is
for a 5-year fixed.
Composite Home Prices
The average selling price of a home in Ontario was $804,700 for the month of June 2025, that’s decreased by 1.2% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, Ontario home prices have decreased 6.9% over the last 12 months.
Single-family Home Prices
The average selling price of a single-family home in Ontario was $891,900 for the month of June 2025, that’s decreased by 1.2% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, single-family home prices in Ontario have decreased by 6.8% over the last 12 months.
Townhouse and Multiplex Prices
The average selling price of a townhouse in Ontario was $642,400 for the month of June 2025, that’s decreased by 1.8% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, the price of a townhouse in Ontario has decreased by 8% over the last 12 months.
Condo Prices
The average selling price of a condo in Ontario was $537,100 for the month of June 2025, that’s decreased by 0.8% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, the price of a condo in Ontario has decreased 8.8% over the last 12 months.
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Ontario Housing Market Summary
Data from the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) indicates that the average price of resale residential homes sold across Ontario in June 2025 was $804,700, and it decreased of 6.9% compared to a year ago.
OREA indicates also reported a sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) of 38%, indicating a Buyers in Ontario for June 2025.
Ontario Housing Market Heats Up Slightly, But Turnaround Remains Uneven
According to the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA), home sales across Ontario rose modestly in June 2025, up 1.1% year-over-year to 16,961 transactions. However, the broader picture still shows signs of market softness. Sales remained 14% below the five-year average and 22.3% below the 10-year June average, pointing to a market that is stabilizing, while not surging. Year-to-date, sales are down a sharp 13.4% compared to the first half of 2024.
Average home prices in Ontario dipped 3.9% year-over-year in June to $852,036. This mild price correction was consistent across many regions, including Central Ontario (which includes the GTA), where the average price fell 5.1% to $1.11 million. That said, Eastern and Northern Ontario posted substantial year-over-year price gains of 3.5% and 0.6%, respectively.
Inventory continues to build, helping shift market conditions toward balance. Active listings surged 18% compared to June 2024, reaching 78,605 homes, the highest level for June in over a decade. New listings also hit a record for the month, up 6.4% annually. Months of inventory rose to 4.6 from 4, reflecting slower absorption and increased buyer choice.
- Home sales: +1.1% year-over-year
- Average price: $852,036 (–3.9%)
- Active listings: +18% year-over-year
- Months of inventory: 4.6 (vs 4.0 in June 2024)
- Regional standouts: Northern Ontario sales up 21.2%; Eastern Ontario prices up 3.5%
Despite national sales rising 3.5%, Ontario’s year-to-date volume remains sluggish. The $14.5 billion in June home sales marked a 2.8% drop in dollar volume for the province compared to last year, underscoring how lower prices are offsetting modest gains in activity.
Mortgage Strategy Takeaways as Ontario Seeks Stability
Ontario’s June data reveals a market in transition. For homebuyers, softening prices and rising inventory present a chance to negotiate, especially outside the GTA. However, home buyers still face high borrowing costs, which means affordability hinges on further mortgage rate relief. Renewers coming off ultra-low pandemic rates may experience sticker shock unless they refinance smartly or stretch amortizations. Refinancers, particularly in Central and Southern Ontario, need to watch for reduced appraised values that could affect equity takeout.
From a policy lens, the Bank of Canada will likely interpret Ontario’s flatlining price growth and bloated inventory as signals that the housing market remains under pressure, despite some regional resilience. The slowing growth in Canada’s biggest province supports a patient stance on interest rate cuts, with the potential for a more dovish tone if consumer demand stays muted into the fall.
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Month-over-Month Expectations for Ontario’s Housing Market
Transactions – Number of Sales
The number of sales in Ontario was 16,961 during June 2025, that’s decreased by 1.6% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, sales in Ontario have increased by 5.6% over the last 12 months.
New Listings
The number of new listings in Ontario was 45,022 during June 2025, that’s decreased by 10.1% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, new listings in Ontario have increased by 15% over the last 12 months.
Real Estate Market
The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) in Ontario was 38% during June 2025, indicating a Buyers. On a monthly basis, that’s increased by 9.5% compared to the previous month. Ontario’s yearly sales to new listings ratio has decreased by 8.1% over the last 12 months.
The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) measures the number of home sales compared to new listings. An SNLR under 40% suggests a buyer’s market in which buyers have the upper hand and more negotiating power. An SNLR between 40% and 60% is a balanced market, while an SNLR of over 60% is considered a seller’s market.
Annual Changes to Regional Composite Home Prices in Ontario
Annual Changes to the Composite Home Price in Ontario
Ontario Market Rents Summary
The average rent in Ontario was $2,329 for the month of June 2025, which decreased by 2% on a year-over-year basis.
The average rent for a bachelor apartment in Ontario was $1,769 for the month of June 2025, which decreased by 4% on a year-over-year basis.
The average rent for a 1-bedroom apartment in Ontario was $2,092 for the month of June 2025, which decreased by 4% on a year-over-year basis.
The average rent for a 2-bedroom apartment in Ontario was $2,551 for the month of June 2025, which decreased by 3% on a year-over-year basis.
The average rent for a 3-bedroom apartment in Ontario was $2,092 for the month of June 2025, which decreased by 3% on a year-over-year basis.
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How Does Renting Compare with Homeownership in Ontario?
Each $100,000 in mortgage balance costs an average of $522.77 per month on nesto’s lowest fixed 5-year rate at
Rental Price Changes by City
Rental Price Changes by Province
Rental Price Growth by Housing Type
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) on Ontario Housing Market Outlook for 2025
Will Ontario’s housing prices increase in 2025?
Ontario’s housing market is expected to stabilize with modest price increases in 2025. Strong population growth, especially in cities like Toronto, Ottawa, Mississauga and Hamilton, will keep demand high. Limited housing supply and declining mortgage rates are key factors that may drive price recovery, particularly in urban and suburban markets.
Will Ontario’s housing market crash in 2025?
Experts believe a crash is unlikely, though certain regions may see minor price adjustments due to rising inventory. Persistent demand, fuelled by immigration and job growth, will continue to support housing values. A balanced market is more likely than a sharp decline.
How affordable will Ontario homes be in 2025?
Affordability in Ontario will remain challenging, especially in cities like Toronto, Markham, Mississauga, and Hamilton, which have above-average prices due to their location in the GTA. However, smaller markets like London and Windsor may offer better affordability for first-time buyers as prices stabilize.
What trends will drive Ontario’s housing market in 2025?
Key trends include declining mortgage rates, population growth, government initiatives to boost housing supply, and increasing demand for suburban and smaller urban areas.
How can I qualify for a mortgage in Ontario in 2025?
To qualify for a mortgage, assess current mortgage rates in Ontario and ensure you meet lender requirements, including the stress test (not required for straight mortgage transfer/switch renewals between NHA-approved lenders). A mortgage pre-approval or prequalification could give you a competitive edge as buyers re-enter the market.
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