Ontario Housing Market Outlook 2026
Ontario Market Report Summary 2026
- The average selling price of a home in Ontario decreased by 5.2% year-over-year to $757,400 in November 2025.
- The average selling price of a single-family home in Ontario decreased by 4.9% year-over-year to $839,600 in November 2025.
- The average selling price of a townhouse/multiplex in Ontario decreased by 6.6% year-over-year to $602,200 in November 2025.
- The average selling price of a condo in Ontario decreased by 7% year-over-year to $510,800 in November 2025.
- The average rent in Ontario decreased by 3.8% year-over-year to $2,296 for November 2025.
- December 18, 2025: Today’s lowest mortgage rate in Ontario is
for a 5-year fixed.
Composite Home Prices
The average selling price of a home in Ontario was $757,400 for the month of November 2025, that’s decreased by 0.9% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, Ontario home prices have decreased 5.2% over the last 12 months.
Single-family Home Prices
The average selling price of a single-family home in Ontario was $839,600 for the month of November 2025, that’s decreased by 0.8% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, single-family home prices in Ontario have decreased by 4.9% over the last 12 months.
Townhouse and Multiplex Prices
The average selling price of a townhouse in Ontario was $602,200 for the month of November 2025, that’s decreased by 2.3% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, the price of a townhouse in Ontario has decreased by 6.6% over the last 12 months.
Condo Prices
The average selling price of a condo in Ontario was $510,800 for the month of November 2025, that’s decreased by 0.7% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, the price of a condo in Ontario has decreased 7% over the last 12 months.
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Ontario Housing Market Summary
Data from the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) indicates that the average price of resale residential homes sold across Ontario in November 2025 was $757,400, and it decreased of 5.2% compared to a year ago.
OREA reported a sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) of 49%, indicating Balanced market conditions in Ontario for November 2025.
Ontario Sees Cooling Demand and Elevated Supply Heading Into Year-End
According to the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA), the province’s housing market continued to cool in November, with weaker sales activity and a growing supply of listings, shifting conditions toward a more balanced market. A total of 12,087 residential transactions were recorded across the province, down 13.1% from November last year. Sales were also well below historical norms, 10.2% below the 5-year average and 20.9% below the 10-year average for the month, underscoring that affordability pressures and buyer caution are weighing on activity.
Ontario Market Snapshot for November
Sales slowed while inventory continued to accumulate, altering the bargaining dynamic across much of the province.
- Home sales declined by 13.1% YoY to 12,087 units
- The average home price fell by 5.8% to $819,356
- New listings slipped 2.1% to 24,606, still well above long-term averages
- Active listings jumped 14.3% to 62,868, the highest November level in more than 15 years
- Months of inventory rose to 5.2, up from 4 months last year and well above the long-run average of 2.9 months
- Total dollar volume of sales dropped sharply by 18.2% to $9.9B
Prices Ease as Buyers Gain Leverage
Ontario home prices continued to trend lower. The average resale price declined by 5.8% YoY in November, outpacing the national decline of 2%. On a year-to-date basis, the provincial average price is down 3.8% compared with the same period last year, indicating a gradual price reset rather than a sudden correction. With inventory levels at multi-year highs, buyers are pushing back harder on pricing, particularly in higher-cost regions.
Regional Performance Shows Wide Divergence
Market conditions varied significantly across Ontario. Central Ontario, which includes the Greater Toronto Area, recorded a 14.1% year-over-year decline in sales in November, with average prices down 6.2%. Southern and Western Ontario also posted double-digit sales declines and price drops of more than 6%. In contrast, Northern Ontario recorded a 4.4% increase in sales despite a modest price decline, while Eastern Ontario prices edged up slightly, even as sales fell 15%. Year-to-date, Northern and Eastern Ontario remain relative bright spots, with home prices still higher than last year, while most other regions continue to see modest declines.
Why the Ontario Market Conditions Are Changing
The most notable shift in Ontario’s market is supply. Active listings are now more than 45% above the 5-year average and over 55% above the 10-year average for November. This expansion in choice is reducing urgency among buyers and extending decision timelines. With months of inventory above 5, many local markets are moving closer to balanced conditions, a stark contrast to the tight seller’s markets seen earlier in the decade.
Higher borrowing costs, stretched affordability, and economic uncertainty are tempering buyer demand, while sellers are taking longer to adjust expectations. Although new listings dipped slightly in November, they remain elevated relative to historical levels, keeping inventory high. The result is slower turnover, softer prices, and a market that increasingly favours patience and negotiation rather than speed.
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Month-over-Month Expectations for Ontario
Transactions – Number of Sales
The number of sales in Ontario was 12,087 during November 2025, that’s decreased by 19.8% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, sales in Ontario have decreased by 12.2% over the last 12 months.
New Listings
The number of new listings in Ontario was 24,606 during November 2025, that’s decreased by 30.8% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, new listings in Ontario have decreased by 0.9% over the last 12 months.
Real Estate Market
The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) in Ontario was 49% during November 2025, indicating a Balanced. On a monthly basis, that’s increased by 15.9% compared to the previous month. Ontario’s yearly sales to new listings ratio has decreased by 11.3% over the last 12 months.
The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) measures the number of home sales compared to new listings. An SNLR under 40% suggests a buyer’s market in which buyers have the upper hand and more negotiating power. An SNLR between 40% and 60% is a balanced market, while an SNLR of over 60% is considered a seller’s market.
Annual Changes to Regional Composite Home Prices in Ontario
Annual Changes to the Composite Home Price in Ontario
Ontario Market Rents Summary
The average rent in Ontario was $2,296 for the month of November 2025, which decreased by 3.8% on a year-over-year basis.
The average rent for a bachelor apartment in Ontario was $1,708 for the month of November 2025, which decreased by 5% on a year-over-year basis.
The average rent for a 1-bedroom apartment in Ontario was $2,012 for the month of November 2025, which decreased by 6% on a year-over-year basis.
The average rent for a 2-bedroom apartment in Ontario was $2,439 for the month of November 2025, which decreased by 5% on a year-over-year basis.
The average rent for a 3-bedroom apartment in Ontario was $2,012 for the month of November 2025, which decreased by 5% on a year-over-year basis.
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How Does Renting Compare with Homeownership in Ontario?
Each $100,000 in mortgage balance costs an average of $520.07 per month on nesto’s lowest fixed 5-year rate at
Rental Price Changes by City
Rental Price Changes by Province
Rental Price Growth by Housing Type
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) on Ontario Housing Market Outlook for 2025
Will housing prices in Ontario increase in 2025?
Ontario’s housing market is expected to stabilize with modest price increases in 2025. Strong population growth, especially in cities such as Toronto, Ottawa, Mississauga, and Hamilton, will keep demand high. Limited housing supply and declining mortgage rates are key factors that may drive price recovery, particularly in urban and suburban markets.
Will Ontario’s housing market crash in 2025?
Experts believe a crash is unlikely, though some regions may see minor price adjustments due to rising inventory levels. Persistent demand, fuelled by immigration and job growth, will continue to support housing values. A balanced market is more likely than a sharp decline.
How affordable will homes in Ontario be in 2025?
Affordability in Ontario will remain challenging, especially in cities like Toronto, Markham, Mississauga, and Hamilton, which have above-average prices due to their location in the GTA. However, smaller markets like London and Windsor may offer better affordability for first-time buyers as prices stabilize.
What trends will drive Ontario’s housing market in 2025?
Key trends include declining mortgage rates, population growth, government initiatives to boost housing supply, and increasing demand for suburban and smaller urban areas.
How can I qualify for a mortgage in Ontario in 2025?
To qualify for a mortgage, assess current mortgage rates in Ontario and ensure you meet lender requirements, including the stress test (not required for straight mortgage transfers or switches between NHA-approved lenders). A mortgage pre-approval or prequalification could give you a competitive edge as buyers re-enter the market.
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