Ontario Housing Market Outlook 2025
Table of contents
Ontario Market Report Summary
- The average selling price of a home in Ontario decreased by 6.9% year-over-year to $795,300 in July 2025.
- The average selling price of a single-family home in Ontario decreased by 6.8% year-over-year to $881,900 in July 2025.
- The average selling price of a townhouse/multiplex in Ontario decreased by 8.2% year-over-year to $632,200 in July 2025.
- The average selling price of a condo in Ontario decreased by 9.2% year-over-year to $530,500 in July 2025.
- The average rent in Ontario decreased by 3% year-over-year to $2,325 for July 2025.
- August 17, 2025: Today’s lowest mortgage rate in Ontario is
for a 5-year fixed.
Composite Home Prices
The average selling price of a home in Ontario was $795,300 for the month of July 2025, that’s decreased by 1.2% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, Ontario home prices have decreased 6.9% over the last 12 months.
Single-family Home Prices
The average selling price of a single-family home in Ontario was $881,900 for the month of July 2025, that’s decreased by 1.1% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, single-family home prices in Ontario have decreased by 6.8% over the last 12 months.
Townhouse and Multiplex Prices
The average selling price of a townhouse in Ontario was $632,200 for the month of July 2025, that’s decreased by 1.6% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, the price of a townhouse in Ontario has decreased by 8.2% over the last 12 months.
Condo Prices
The average selling price of a condo in Ontario was $530,500 for the month of July 2025, that’s decreased by 1.2% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, the price of a condo in Ontario has decreased 9.2% over the last 12 months.
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Ontario Housing Market Summary
Data from the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) indicates that the average price of resale residential homes sold across Ontario in July 2025 was $795,300, and it decreased of 6.9% compared to a year ago.
OREA indicates also reported a sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) of 40%, indicating a Buyers in Ontario for July 2025.
Ontario Home Sales in July Jump 11% to 4-Year High as Listings Hit 15-Year Peak
According to the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA), the provincial housing market performed well in July, with 16,341 residential sales reported through MLS, up 11.4% from July 2024 and hitting a 4-year high for the month. Home sales were slightly above the 5-year average but still below the 10-year trend. All regions posted year-over-year sales gains, led by Western Ontario (+16.5%) and Central Ontario (+13.8%).
The provincial average price slipped 2.1% to $822,356, with mixed results regionally. Prices fell most in Central Ontario (-5.3%) and Southern Ontario (-1.9%), while Eastern, Northern, and Western Ontario posted small gains. New listings surged 8.2% to 40,485, the highest July on record, pushing active listings to 76,438, the most for July in over 15 years. Inventory stood at 4.7 months, above last year’s 4.4 months and well above the long-run average of 2.9 months.
Homebuilding Struggles in Ontario
Despite strong resale activity, Ontario’s new housing supply is falling short of provincial targets. The updated housing tracker shows just 94,753 total housing starts in 2024, far below the 125,000 needed annually to meet the 2031 goal of 1.5 million homes. Early 2025 data points to the weakest first-quarter starts since 2009, with the construction industry warning of possible layoffs affecting up to 40% of the workforce. Builders cite high costs, slow approvals, and low consumer confidence as significant barriers.
Government funding initiatives like the Building Faster Fund aim to incentivize municipalities to hit housing targets, but only 23 of 50 reached at least 80% of their goals in 2024. Industry leaders and opposition voices are calling for measures such as reducing development charges, expanding gentle density, and increasing support for non-profit and co-op housing.
Impact on Mortgages and Homebuyers in Ontario
For homebuyers, softer average prices in many regions may offer a small break, but higher inventory is giving buyers more negotiating power. Renewers will continue facing higher monthly payments when their mortgage matures, while refinancers may have more flexibility in high-demand markets. Ontario’s sustained resale activity, despite supply challenges, could signal to the Bank of Canada that demand remains resilient, encouraging a cautious approach to rate cuts to avoid fuelling further price pressures.
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Month-over-Month Expectations for Ontario’s Housing Market
Transactions – Number of Sales
The number of sales in Ontario was 16,341 during July 2025, that’s decreased by 3.7% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, sales in Ontario have increased by 10% over the last 12 months.
New Listings
The number of new listings in Ontario was 40,485 during July 2025, that’s decreased by 10.1% compared to the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, new listings in Ontario have increased by 8.8% over the last 12 months.
Real Estate Market
The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) in Ontario was 40% during July 2025, indicating a Buyers. On a monthly basis, that’s increased by 7.1% compared to the previous month. Ontario’s yearly sales to new listings ratio has increased by 1.1% over the last 12 months.
The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) measures the number of home sales compared to new listings. An SNLR under 40% suggests a buyer’s market in which buyers have the upper hand and more negotiating power. An SNLR between 40% and 60% is a balanced market, while an SNLR of over 60% is considered a seller’s market.
Annual Changes to Regional Composite Home Prices in Ontario
Annual Changes to the Composite Home Price in Ontario
Ontario Market Rents Summary
The average rent in Ontario was $2,325 for the month of July 2025, which decreased by 3% on a year-over-year basis.
The average rent for a bachelor apartment in Ontario was $1,764 for the month of July 2025, which decreased by 3.5% on a year-over-year basis.
The average rent for a 1-bedroom apartment in Ontario was $2,078 for the month of July 2025, which decreased by 5.1% on a year-over-year basis.
The average rent for a 2-bedroom apartment in Ontario was $2,542 for the month of July 2025, which decreased by 3.6% on a year-over-year basis.
The average rent for a 3-bedroom apartment in Ontario was $2,078 for the month of July 2025, which decreased by 3.6% on a year-over-year basis.
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How Does Renting Compare with Homeownership in Ontario?
Each $100,000 in mortgage balance costs an average of $528.19 per month on nesto’s lowest fixed 5-year rate at
Rental Price Changes by City
Rental Price Changes by Province
Rental Price Growth by Housing Type
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) on Ontario Housing Market Outlook for 2025
Will Ontario’s housing prices increase in 2025?
Ontario’s housing market is expected to stabilize with modest price increases in 2025. Strong population growth, especially in cities like Toronto, Ottawa, Mississauga and Hamilton, will keep demand high. Limited housing supply and declining mortgage rates are key factors that may drive price recovery, particularly in urban and suburban markets.
Will Ontario’s housing market crash in 2025?
Experts believe a crash is unlikely, though certain regions may see minor price adjustments due to rising inventory. Persistent demand, fuelled by immigration and job growth, will continue to support housing values. A balanced market is more likely than a sharp decline.
How affordable will Ontario homes be in 2025?
Affordability in Ontario will remain challenging, especially in cities like Toronto, Markham, Mississauga, and Hamilton, which have above-average prices due to their location in the GTA. However, smaller markets like London and Windsor may offer better affordability for first-time buyers as prices stabilize.
What trends will drive Ontario’s housing market in 2025?
Key trends include declining mortgage rates, population growth, government initiatives to boost housing supply, and increasing demand for suburban and smaller urban areas.
How can I qualify for a mortgage in Ontario in 2025?
To qualify for a mortgage, assess current mortgage rates in Ontario and ensure you meet lender requirements, including the stress test (not required for straight mortgage transfer/switch renewals between NHA-approved lenders). A mortgage pre-approval or prequalification could give you a competitive edge as buyers re-enter the market.
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