Are you wondering where home prices are going down in Canada? Will the housing market crash in 2025? You’re not alone. These questions have been on nearly every homeowner’s and homebuyer’s mind lately. National supply constraints have kept home prices high in most major markets. 

Home prices in Canada have declined in some areas over the last year. This means buyers have never had a more opportune time to learn which Canadian cities have seen the most significant declines to get you the best value for your hard-earned money.

---

Key Takeaways

• Canada’s most expensive provinces, Ontario and BC, are expected to see minimal price gains but increased home sales.
• Experts predict the housing market could rebound in 2025. 
• Home prices are expected to climb in 2025 as easing interest rates and pent-up demand fuel market activity.

---

Canadian Cities with Declining Home Prices in 2025

Across the board, there’s evidence that home prices are no longer falling as fast as they once were. It’s anticipated that 2025 will be a comeback year as lower interest rates bring buyers back from the sidelines. To stay prepared, here are the top 5 Canadian cities that have seen the most significant decline in home prices to date:

1. Lloydminster, SK

Lloydminster, Saskatchewan, has seen a 34.2% decline in home prices from last year. Prices have fallen from $260,000 in December 2023 to $171,180 in December 2024. Not only have home prices in this area dropped significantly, but you only need to make an annual gross income of approximately $48K to be able to afford the average-priced home in Lloydminster.

2. Alberta West, AB

Alberta West covers areas that include Hinton, Edson, Jasper, Grande Cache, Whitecourt, Slave Lake, Athabasca, Banff, and Canmore. The area has seen a 21.7% decline in home prices from December 2023. The average home price in the Alberta West region was $387,001, down from $494,186 as recorded last year. To qualify for the average-priced home in the area, you need a gross annual income of approximately $89K.

3. Sarnia-Lambton, ON

Home prices in Sarnia-Lambton have declined 12.7% year-over-year, dropping from $564,607 to $493,103. You’ll need to make approximately $113K annually to qualify for the average-priced home in Sarnia.

4. Portage La Prairie, MB

Homes in the Portage La Prairie area fell 7.9% from $247,500 in December 2023 to $$228,000 in December 2024. While this may not seem significant, you only need to make approximately $54K a year to qualify for a home in Portage La Prairie.

5. Bancroft and Area, ON

Prices in Bancroft and the surrounding area fell 6% to $514,800 from $547,900. However, you’ll need to make the highest income out of the other 4 cities mentioned, approximately $118K a year, to qualify for the average-priced home in the Bancroft area.

Honourable Mentions

There were quite a few cities with declining home prices noted year over year. Here’s a list of 10 more cities with declining home prices that didn’t make the cut for our top 5:

• Brandon, MB -5.3%
• Fort McMurry, AB -4.5%
• Simcoe and District, ON -4.3%
• Swift Current, SK -4%
• Quinte and District, ON -3.4%
• Medicine Hat, AB -2.7%
• Fraser Valley, BC -2%
• Tillsonburg District, ON -1.2%
• Cape Breton, NS -1.1%
• York Region, ON -0.8%

Reports Vary: What Banks & Analysts are Predicting for 2025

Some early predictions are out on what we can expect for the housing market into 2025. The critical thing to note throughout is that while everyone has their perspective on how the market will end up, one thing seems to ring true: prices may be on the rebound.

TD Economics Forecast Canada’s Housing Prices to Increase 8%

TD economists recently updated their predictions that prices will increase by 8% nationally in 2025. The forecast attributes this increase to sales price growth in Saskatchewan (+9.4%) and New Brunswick (7.6%). Meanwhile, Ontario (+22.6%) and British Columbia (+23.4) are expected to lead the increase in national home sales growth in 2025.

CREA Forecasts a Rebound of 4.7% in Average Home Prices in 2025

CREA’s recent forecast update forecasts that the national average home price will increase by 4.7% on an annual basis in 2025. They attribute this increase to years of pent-up demand and lower interest rates. 

Based on the strength of the real estate market, they expect an 8.6% increase in the number of properties traded in 2025. The national average home price is anticipated to increase a further 4.5% in 2026. 

Canadian Regional Housing Forecasts

Overall, reports suggest that the housing market in Canada will experience a rebound in sales, which could increase prices. But what does this mean for individual regions? Will it be a seller’s market across the board? 

Regional variations may exist in these forecasts. For example, while some provinces and cities may experience a decline in home prices, others could see an increase or remain relatively stable. It is also important to remember that any changes in mortgage rates or other economic factors could affect these predictions.

To get the most region-specific insights, consult our various real estate market outlooks below: 

• Montreal Housing Outlook 
• Toronto Housing Outlook
• Ottawa Housing Outlook
• Québec Housing Outlook
• Ontario Housing Outlook

Final Thoughts

The data suggests that home prices and sales may not decline much more as we enter 2025 and the spring lending season. However, it’s essential to stay informed about local housing market conditions and any changes in economic factors, such as interest rates or the potential for tariffs, that could influence and change these forecasts. 

If you’re ready to buy, prepare for your upcoming mortgage financing and lock in a low rate from nesto. Ready to lock in your low rate? Chat with a mortgage expert today.

---