Ontario Housing Market Outlook 2026

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Ontario Drives Canada’s Sales Rebound While Prices Stay Soft

According to the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA), in May 2026, 17,247 homes sold across the province, down a slim 1.2% from a year ago but up for the fourth consecutive month, and Ontario disproportionately powered Canada’s national sales rebound. Even so, the province remains the country’s price laggard: the MLS Home Price Index benchmark slipped to $756,900, down 5.5% year over year, a steeper annual decline than the national figure. Ontario is doing the heavy lifting on volume while still working off the price correction that began last year.

• The price pullback is sharpest at the affordable end. The benchmark condo price fell 8.5% over the year to $493,200, and townhouses dropped 7.2% to $597,100, while single-family homes held up better at $841,000, down 5.2%. That condo weakness is the same force feeding cheaper rents across the province.
• Supply is tightening where it counts. New listings fell sharply, down 12.7% from a year ago to 44,665, even as sales climbed, exactly the squeeze that tends to put a floor under prices. Active listings eased 5.2% from last May but still sit well above their five-year average, so buyers have not lost their footing yet.
• At 4.2 months of inventory, down from 4.4 a year ago, Ontario is broadly balanced, though still looser than its long-run spring norm of 2.5 months. The average sale price of $847,813 was off just 1.5% from last May, a far smaller drop than the benchmark, a reminder that more higher-end homes are changing hands as activity returns.

Step back from the annual figures, and the depth of the condo correction comes into view. Toronto’s condo market, the engine of Ontario’s price weakness, now sits roughly 25% below its 2022 peak, and TD Economics expects prices there to slip below their pre-pandemic level. For a segment built so heavily on investors, that is a hard repricing. For first-time buyers, it is the clearest opening in years, with the steepest discounts and the most room to negotiate concentrated at the entry level, where affordability has been tightest.

With the Bank of Canada holding at 2.25% and federal first-time buyer measures now in force, buyers across Ontario have a rare window of choice before tightening supply firms up prices. Start by comparing mortgage rates in Ontario, then speak with nesto mortgage experts about a pre-approval to line up your best mortgage strategy.

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Ontario Housing Market Highlights

• The average selling price of a home in Ontario decreased by 5.5% year-over-year to $756,900 in May.
• The average selling price of a single-family home in Ontario decreased by 5.2% year-over-year to $841,000 in May.
• The average selling price of a townhouse/multiplex in Ontario decreased by 7.1% year-over-year to $597,100 in May.
• The average selling price of a condo in Ontario decreased by 8.5% year-over-year to $493,200 in May.
• The average rent in Ontario decreased by 6% year-over-year to $2,229 for May.
• June 18, 2026: Today’s lowest mortgage rate in Ontario is 4.09% for a 5-year fixed.

Data from the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) indicates that the average price of resale residential homes sold across Ontario in May was $756,900, and it decreased of 5.5% compared to a year ago.

OREA reported a sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) of 39%, indicating Buyers market conditions in Ontario for May.

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Composite Home Prices

Single-family Home Prices

Townhouse and Multiplex Prices

Condo Prices

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Ontario Market Rents Snapshot

The average rent in Ontario was $2,229 for May, which decreased by 6% year over year.

The average rent for a 1-bedroom apartment in Ontario was $1,968 for the month of May, which decreased by 5.5% year over year.

The average rent for a 2-bedroom apartment in Ontario was $2,424 for the month of May, which decreased by 3.9% year over year.

Rental Price Changes by City

Rank	City	Total Average	1 Bedroom	2 Bedrooms	Year-over-Year Change
1	North Vancouver	$2,927	$2,445	$3,302	−7.7%
2	Vancouver	$2,712	$2,385	$3,330	−0.8%
3	Kanata	$2,543	$2,277	$2,812	3.30%
4	North York	$2,520	$2,136	$2,669	−1.4%
5	Toronto	$2,512	$2,212	$2,907	−0.9%
6	Coquitlam	$2,476	$2,128	$2,709	−6.6%
7	Oakville	$2,449	$2,224	$2,631	−10.3%
8	Burnaby	$2,446	$2,115	$2,727	−7.7%
9	Etobicoke	$2,431	$2,082	$2,651	−3.3%
10	Burlington	$2,384	$2,118	$2,465	−4.7%
11	Vaughan	$2,342	$2,065	$2,569	−3.2%
12	Mississauga	$2,335	$2,052	$2,448	−5.8%
13	Halifax	$2,319	$2,064	$2,570	−2.0%
14	Langley	$2,286	$1,975	$2,477	−1.1%
15	Victoria	$2,257	$2,009	$2,598	−3.9%
16	Brampton	$2,224	$1,935	$2,291	1.20%
17	Scarborough	$2,194	$1,868	$2,307	−9.1%
18	Guelph	$2,194	$1,910	$2,255	−3.4%
19	Ajax	$2,193	$1,902	$2,244	3.90%
20	Kingston	$2,179	$1,926	$2,297	10.20%
21	Barrie	$2,143	$1,918	$2,150	−3.5%
22	Ottawa	$2,140	$1,949	$2,453	−4.1%
23	East York	$2,138	$1,851	$2,345	−7.7%
24	Surrey	$2,135	$1,812	$2,249	−4.4%
25	New Westminster	$2,132	$1,892	$2,641	−4.6%
26	Waterloo	$2,106	$1,957	$2,265	−4.4%
27	Kelowna	$2,093	$1,786	$2,244	−3.7%
28	Laval	$2,063	$1,706	$2,349	11.20%
29	Cambridge	$2,062	$1,820	$2,166	−1.5%
30	Greater Sudbury	$2,043	$1,793	$2,150	−13.1%
31	Nanaimo	$2,027	$1,844	$2,244	3.10%
32	Kamloops	$2,009	$1,879	$2,113	−1.3%
33	Peterborough	$1,994	$1,751	$1,979	−0.8%
34	Airdrie	$1,991	$1,469	$1,794	1.30%
35	Hamilton	$1,989	$1,712	$2,318	10.10%
36	Montreal	$1,968	$1,789	$2,312	2.50%
37	Brossard	$1,964	$1,764	$2,114	−4.6%
38	Oshawa	$1,959	$1,737	$2,025	−2.5%
39	Brantford	$1,924	$1,791	$2,051	−0.8%
40	London	$1,917	$1,665	$2,050	−3.5%
41	Niagara Falls	$1,887	$1,660	$2,026	−5.9%
42	Calgary	$1,883	$1,534	$1,856	−4.5%
43	Kitchener	$1,879	$1,687	$2,041	−8.1%
44	St. Catharines	$1,865	$1,652	$1,942	−1.5%
45	Welland	$1,845	$1,619	$2,016	8.50%
46	Gatineau	$1,800	$1,617	$1,881	−9.8%
47	Côte Saint-Luc	$1,783	$1,485	$2,029	−13.2%
48	Windsor	$1,715	$1,522	$1,921	−1.3%
49	Winnipeg	$1,679	$1,469	$1,789	1.50%
50	Sarnia	$1,661	$1,476	$1,752	−4.6%
51	Edmonton	$1,605	$1,287	$1,641	−2.3%
52	Saskatoon	$1,572	$1,361	$1,590	3.40%
53	Red Deer	$1,561	$1,333	$1,507	−2.0%
54	Quebec City	$1,522	$1,295	$1,692	1.90%
55	Lethbridge	$1,495	$1,306	$1,518	−5.9%
56	Regina	$1,471	$1,322	$1,525	−3.2%
57	Fort McMurray	$1,384	$1,169	$1,414	−4.8%
58	Medicine Hat	$1,330	$1,197	$1,348	−3.2%
59	Lloydminster	$1,287	$1,055	$1,378	8.10%
60	St. John's	$1,139	$1,065	$1,253	4.70%

Average Rent by City
Source: Rentals.ca Network Data & Urbanation Inc.

Rental Price Changes by Province

Rental Price Growth by Housing Type

How Does Renting Compare with Homeownership Across Ontario?

Each $100,000 in mortgage balance costs an average of $530.91 per month on nesto’s lowest fixed 5-year rate at 4.09% and $495.28 per month on nesto’s lowest adjustable 5-year rate at 3.40%.

For each $100,000 in mortgage balance, a 0.25% change in Canada’s policy rate impacts the monthly payment by $13.23. Rates used for calculation are those offered on insured purchases with less than a 20% downpayment on a 25-year amortization. Canada’s policy rate is 2.25%, and nesto’s prime rate is 4.45%.

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) About the Ontario Housing Market Outlook for 2026

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Why Choose nesto

At nesto, our commission-free mortgage experts, certified in multiple provinces, provide exceptional advice and service that exceeds industry standards. Our mortgage experts are salaried employees who provide impartial guidance on mortgage options tailored to your needs and are evaluated based on client satisfaction and the quality of their advice. nesto aims to transform the mortgage industry by providing honest advice and competitive rates through a 100% digital, transparent, and seamless process.

nesto is on a mission to offer a positive, empowering and transparent property financing experience – simplified from start to finish.

Contact our licensed and knowledgeable mortgage experts to find your best mortgage rate in Canada.

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