Ontario Housing Market Outlook 2026
Ontario Ends the Year with Record Inventory and Softening Home Prices
Ontario’s housing market finished the year in a holding pattern, with December sales up slightly from a year earlier but still well below historical norms. Buyer activity remained muted as affordability pressures and economic uncertainty lingered, keeping momentum subdued across most regions. While some northern and eastern markets showed relative resilience, larger urban centres continued to see cautious demand and limited price support.
Data from the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) shows average resale prices in the province fell 3.9% year over year in December, while active listings surged to their highest December level in more than a decade. Months of inventory rose to 5.1, well above long-term norms, firmly shifting leverage toward buyers. Heading into 2026, Ontario remains characterized by abundant supply, restrained demand, and limited near-term pressure for prices to move higher unless confidence improves meaningfully.
Ontario Housing Market Highlights
- The average selling price of a home in Ontario decreased by 5.6% year-over-year to $749,400 in December.
- The average selling price of a single-family home in Ontario decreased by 5.2% year-over-year to $830,800 in December.
- The average selling price of a townhouse/multiplex in Ontario decreased by 7.5% year-over-year to $595,000 in December.
- The average selling price of a condo in Ontario decreased by 7.7% year-over-year to $505,400 in December.
- The average rent in Ontario decreased by 3.9% year-over-year to $2,277 for December.
- January 18, 2026: Today’s lowest mortgage rate in Ontario is
for a 5-year fixed.
Data from the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) indicates that the average price of resale residential homes sold across Ontario in December was $749,400, and it decreased of 5.6% compared to a year ago.
OREA reported a sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) of 74%, indicating Sellers market conditions in Ontario for December.
Composite Home Prices
The average selling price of a home in Ontario was $749,400 for the month of December, that’s decreased by 1.1% month over month. On a year-over-year basis, Ontario home prices have decreased 5.6% year-over-year.
Single-family Home Prices
The average selling price of a single-family home in Ontario was $830,800 for the month of December, that’s decreased by 1% month over month. On a year-over-year basis, single-family home prices in Ontario have decreased by 5.2% year-over-year.
Townhouse and Multiplex Prices
The average selling price of a townhouse in Ontario was $595,000 for the month of December, that’s decreased by 1.2% month over month. On a year-over-year basis, the price of a townhouse in Ontario has decreased by 7.5% year-over-year.
Condo Prices
The average selling price of a condo in Ontario was $505,400 for the month of December, that’s decreased by 1.1% month over month. On a year-over-year basis, the price of a condo in Ontario has decreased 7.7% year-over-year.
Transactions – Number of Sales
The number of sales in Ontario was 8,806 during December, that’s increased by 27.1% month over month. On a year-over-year basis, sales in Ontario have decreased by 2.1% year-over-year.
New Listings
The number of new listings in Ontario was 11,869 during December, that’s decreased by 51.8% month over month. On a year-over-year basis, new listings in Ontario have increased by 1.7% year-over-year.
Real Estate Market
The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) in Ontario was 74% during December, indicating a Sellers. On a monthly basis, that’s increased by 51% month over month. Ontario’s yearly sales to new listings ratio has decreased by 3.8% year-over-year.
The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) measures the number of home sales compared to new listings. An SNLR below 40% indicates a buyer’s market, where buyers hold the upper hand and greater negotiating power. An SNLR between 40% and 60% is a balanced market, while an SNLR of over 60% is considered a seller’s market.
Annual Changes to Regional Composite Home Prices in Ontario
Annual Changes to the Composite Home Price in Ontario
Ontario Market Rents Snapshot
The average rent in Ontario was $2,277 for the month of December, which decreased by 3.9% year over year.
The average rent for a 1-bedroom apartment in Ontario was $1,994 for the month of December, which decreased by 5.6% on a year-over-year basis.
The average rent for a 2-bedroom apartment in Ontario was $2,421 for the month of December, which decreased by 4.5% on a year-over-year basis.
Rental Price Changes by City
Rental Price Changes by Province
Rental Price Growth by Housing Type
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) on Ontario Housing Market Outlook for 2026
Will housing prices in Ontario increase in 2026?
Ontario’s housing market is expected to stabilize with modest price increases in 2026. Strong population growth, particularly in cities such as Toronto, Ottawa, Mississauga, and Hamilton, will sustain high demand. Limited housing supply and declining mortgage rates are key factors that may drive price recovery, particularly in urban and suburban markets.
Will Ontario’s housing market crash in 2026?
Experts believe a crash is unlikely, though some regions may see minor price adjustments due to rising inventory levels. Persistent demand, fuelled by immigration and job growth, will continue to support housing values. A balanced market is more likely than a sharp decline.
How affordable will homes in Ontario be in 2026?
Affordability in Ontario will remain challenging, especially in cities like Toronto, Markham, Mississauga, and Hamilton, which have above-average prices due to their location in the GTA. However, smaller markets like London and Windsor may offer better affordability for first-time buyers as prices stabilize.
What trends will drive Ontario’s housing market in 2026?
Key trends include declining mortgage rates, population growth, government initiatives to boost housing supply, and increasing demand for suburban and smaller urban areas.
How can I qualify for a mortgage in Ontario in 2026?
To qualify for a mortgage, assess current mortgage rates in Ontario and ensure you meet lender requirements, including the stress test (not required for straight mortgage transfers or switches between NHA-approved lenders). A mortgage pre-approval or prequalification could give you a competitive edge as buyers re-enter the market.
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