Ontario Housing Market Outlook 2026
Ontario Prices Drop Further as Sales Soften Across the Province
According to the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA), MLS Systems across Ontario recorded 13,340 sales in September 2026, an 8.3% drop from September 2025 and 21% below the monthly 10-year average. The MLS HPI composite benchmark price fell 3.9% year over year to $736,300.
- The single-family benchmark was $814,900, down 3.8% YoY, while townhouse and row homes fell 6% YoY to $581,400 and apartments fell 6.2% YoY to $484,900. The average resale home price was $791,691, down 4.3%.
- New listings totalled 39,261, down 10.3% YoY but 3.1% above the five-year average, and active listings stood at 72,643, down 4.2% YoY and 39.8% above the 10-year average.
- Months of inventory rose to 5.4, up from 5.2 a year earlier and well above the long-run average of 3.4, while year-to-date sales fell 3.2% to 122,756.
CREA’s national release traced September’s monthly price decline to Ontario, where demand softened. Townhouses and apartments are giving up the most ground, and months of inventory were about two months above the long-run average.
Start by comparing mortgage rates in Ontario, then connect with our nesto mortgage experts to see how softer prices and extra inventory lift your homeownership options.
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Ontario Housing Market Highlights
- The average selling price of a home in Ontario decreased by 4.02% year-over-year to $736,300 in September 2026.
- The average selling price of a single-family home in Ontario decreased by 4.04% year-over-year to $814,900 in September 2026.
- The average selling price of a townhouse/multiplex in Ontario decreased by 6.03% year-over-year to $581,400 in September 2026.
- The average selling price of a condo in Ontario decreased by 6.17% year-over-year to $484,900 in September 2026.
- October 29, 2026: Today’s lowest mortgage rate in Ontario is 4.59% for a 5-year fixed.
Data from the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) indicates that the average price of resale residential homes sold across Ontario in September 2026 was $736,300, and it decreased by 4.02% compared to a year ago.
OREA also reported a sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) of 34%, indicating buyers market conditions in Ontario for September 2026.
| Ontario | Composite Price September 2026 | Composite Price August 2026 | YoY Change (%) | MoM Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Family Home | $814,900 | $826,900 | decreased by 4.04% | decreased by 1.45% |
| Townhouse/Multiplex | $581,400 | $585,000 | decreased by 6.03% | decreased by 0.62% |
| Condo / Apartments | $484,900 | $489,200 | decreased by 6.17% | decreased by 0.88% |
| Composite | $736,300 | $745,400 | decreased by 4.02% | decreased by 1.22% |
Ontario Home Price Changes Over The Last Decade
Composite Home Prices
The average selling price of a home in Ontario was $736,300 for the month of September 2026, that’s decreased by 1.22% month-over-month. On a year-over-year basis, Ontario home prices have decreased by 4.02%.
Composite Home Prices in Ontario
Monthly changes to Ontario’s composite home prices over the last 10 years.
Single-Family Home Prices
The average selling price of a single-family home in Ontario was $814,900 for the month of September 2026; that’s decreased by 1.45% month-over-month. On a year-over-year basis, single-family home prices in Ontario have decreased by 4.04%.
Single-Family Home Prices in Ontario
Monthly changes to Ontario’s single-family home prices over the last 10 years.
Townhouse and Multiplex Prices
The average selling price of a townhouse in Ontario was $581,400 for the month of September 2026; that’s decreased by 0.62% month-over-month. On a year-over-year basis, the price of a townhouse in Ontario has decreased by 6.03%.
Townhouse and Multiplex Prices in Ontario
Monthly changes to Ontario’s townhouse and multiplex home prices over the last 10 years.
Condo Prices
The average selling price of a condo in Ontario was $484,900 for the month of September 2026; that’s decreased by 0.88% month-over-month. On a year-over-year basis, the price of a condo in Ontario has decreased by 6.17%.
Condo Prices in Ontario
Monthly changes to Ontario’s condominium apartment home prices over the last 10 years.
Ontario Housing Market Conditions
Number of Home Sales
Ontario home sales were 13,340 during September 2026, that’s decreased by 2.06% month-over-month. On a year-over-year basis, home sale transactions in Ontario have decreased by 7.03%.
Home Sales Volume in Ontario
Ontario’s MLS home sale volume over the past 12 months.
New Listings
The number of new listings in Ontario was 39,261 during September 2026, that’s increased by 26.55% month-over-month. On a year-over-year basis, new listings in Ontario have decreased by 7.72%.
New Listings in Ontario
Ontario’s MLS new listings over the past 12 months.
Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR)
The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) in Ontario was 34% during September 2026, indicating a buyers market. On a monthly basis, that’s decreased by 22.55% month-over-month. Ontario’s yearly sales-to-new-listings ratio has increased by 0.89%.
SNLR in Ontario
Monthly change in Ontario’s sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) over the past 12 months.
The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) measures home sales relative to new listings. An SNLR below 40% indicates a buyer’s market, where buyers hold the upper hand and greater negotiating power. An SNLR between 40% and 60% indicates a balanced market, while an SNLR over 60% indicates a seller’s market.
Market Conditions in Ontario
| Oct 2025 | balanced market |
| Nov 2025 | balanced market |
| Dec 2025 | sellers market |
| Jan 2026 | buyers market |
| Feb 2026 | buyers market |
| Mar 2026 | buyers market |
| Apr 2026 | buyers market |
| May 2026 | buyers market |
| Jun 2026 | balanced market |
| Jul 2026 | balanced market |
| Aug 2026 | balanced market |
| Sep 2026 | buyers market |
SNLR — last 12 months
Monthly change in Ontario’s market conditions over the past 12 months.
Short-Term Composite Home Price Trends in Ontario
Monthly changes to Ontario’s composite home price over the last 12 months.
Ontario Market Rents Snapshot
The average rent in Ontario was $2,240 for the month of September 2026 and has decreased by 4.80% year-over-year.
The average rent for a 1-bedroom apartment in Ontario was $1,963 for September 2026 and has decreased by 3.92% year over year.
The average rent for a 2-bedroom apartment in Ontario was $2,410 for September 2026 and has decreased by 3.25% year over year.
Average Rents for Cities Across Canada
| Rank | City | Total Avg | 1 Bed | 2 Bed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Vancouver | $3,028 | $2,466 | $3,477 |
| 2 | Vancouver | $2,754 | $2,373 | $3,271 |
| 3 | Burnaby | $2,564 | $2,111 | $2,785 |
| 4 | Toronto | $2,556 | $2,220 | $2,937 |
| 5 | North York | $2,528 | $2,093 | $2,692 |
| 6 | Kanata | $2,501 | $2,265 | $2,691 |
| 7 | Coquitlam | $2,482 | $2,053 | $2,608 |
| 8 | Oakville | $2,460 | $2,165 | $2,703 |
| 9 | Etobicoke | $2,431 | $2,099 | $2,644 |
| 10 | Barrie | $2,397 | $2,148 | $2,552 |
| 11 | Burlington | $2,379 | $2,074 | $2,389 |
| 12 | Vaughan | $2,363 | $2,114 | $2,569 |
| 13 | Mississauga | $2,337 | $2,036 | $2,423 |
| 14 | Halifax | $2,324 | $2,002 | $2,508 |
| 15 | Brampton | $2,261 | $1,990 | $2,334 |
| 16 | Victoria | $2,253 | $1,987 | $2,632 |
| 17 | New Westminster | $2,241 | $1,881 | $2,734 |
| 18 | Langley | $2,239 | $1,868 | $2,426 |
| 19 | Surrey | $2,227 | $1,807 | $2,251 |
| 20 | Guelph | $2,225 | $1,961 | $2,292 |
| 21 | Ajax | $2,214 | $1,927 | $2,294 |
| 22 | Ottawa | $2,200 | $1,969 | $2,445 |
| 23 | Scarborough | $2,178 | $1,855 | $2,315 |
| 24 | Waterloo | $2,158 | $1,884 | $2,302 |
| 25 | Nanaimo | $2,157 | $1,897 | $2,261 |
| 26 | Kingston | $2,150 | $1,930 | $2,308 |
| 27 | Laval | $2,131 | $1,712 | $2,364 |
| 28 | Kelowna | $2,111 | $1,834 | $2,270 |
| 29 | Brossard | $2,083 | $1,790 | $2,190 |
| 30 | Cambridge | $2,055 | $1,863 | $2,143 |
| 31 | East York | $2,044 | $1,800 | $2,355 |
| 32 | Airdrie | $2,013 | $1,466 | $1,750 |
| 33 | Oshawa | $1,993 | $1,724 | $2,006 |
| 34 | Niagara Falls | $1,988 | $1,714 | $1,960 |
| 35 | Greater Sudbury | $1,982 | $1,745 | $2,076 |
| 36 | Montreal | $1,961 | $1,746 | $2,261 |
| 37 | Kamloops | $1,957 | $1,701 | $2,023 |
| 38 | Kitchener | $1,935 | $1,709 | $2,063 |
| 39 | Peterborough | $1,926 | $1,692 | $1,964 |
| 40 | Brantford | $1,923 | $1,780 | $2,033 |
| 41 | Hamilton | $1,910 | $1,657 | $2,130 |
| 42 | London | $1,897 | $1,628 | $1,998 |
| 43 | Calgary | $1,883 | $1,508 | $1,834 |
| 44 | St. Catharines | $1,830 | $1,518 | $1,959 |
| 45 | Welland | $1,792 | $1,540 | $1,920 |
| 46 | Gatineau | $1,769 | $1,625 | $1,810 |
| 47 | Côte Saint-Luc | $1,655 | $1,410 | $1,875 |
| 48 | Winnipeg | $1,653 | $1,435 | $1,764 |
| 49 | Windsor | $1,638 | $1,467 | $1,843 |
| 50 | Edmonton | $1,633 | $1,281 | $1,643 |
| 51 | Quebec City | $1,620 | $1,308 | $1,642 |
| 52 | Red Deer | $1,614 | $1,338 | $1,503 |
| 53 | Sarnia | $1,583 | $1,408 | $1,642 |
| 54 | Lethbridge | $1,573 | $1,355 | $1,558 |
| 55 | Saskatoon | $1,559 | $1,305 | $1,536 |
| 56 | Regina | $1,468 | $1,305 | $1,521 |
| 57 | Lloydminster | $1,392 | $1,108 | $1,422 |
| 58 | Fort McMurray | $1,386 | $1,147 | $1,372 |
| 59 | St. John's | $1,362 | $1,167 | $1,328 |
| 60 | Medicine Hat | $1,360 | $1,232 | $1,391 |
Source: Rentals.ca Network Data & Urbanation Inc.
Average Rent by Province
| LOCATION | Total | 1B | 2B | 3B |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AB | $1,780 | $1,409 | $1,745 | $2,177 |
| BC | $2,231 | $1,904 | $2,355 | $2,850 |
| MB | $2,403 | $2,045 | $2,649 | $3,313 |
| ON | $1,649 | $1,428 | $1,751 | $2,008 |
| QC | $2,240 | $1,963 | $2,410 | $2,902 |
| SK | $1,933 | $1,694 | $2,144 | $2,558 |
| Atlantic Canada | $1,490 | $1,284 | $1,504 | $1,993 |
| Canada | $2,034 | $1,756 | $2,138 | $2,489 |
Average Rent by Property Type Across Canada
| TYPE | Total | 1B | 2B | 3B |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apartment | $2,036 | $1,799 | $2,221 | $2,715 |
| Condominium | $2,052 | $1,844 | $2,161 | $2,769 |
| House/Townhouse | $2,016 | $1,311 | $1,732 | $2,299 |
| All | $2,034 | $1,756 | $2,138 | $2,489 |
How Does Renting Compare With Homeownership in Ontario?
Each $100,000 in mortgage balance costs an average of $564 per month on nesto’s lowest fixed 5-year rate at 4.59%, and $517 per month on nesto’s lowest adjustable 5-year rate at 3.66%.
On the variable side, a 0.25% change in the Bank of Canada’s policy rate moves that payment by roughly $13.47 per $100,000 if rates rise, or $13.27 if they fall. Fixed payments aren’t affected the same way mid-term—a fixed rate is locked for the term and tracks bond yields, not the policy rate directly, so this sensitivity applies only to the variable side.
The interest rates used for the calculation are those offered on insured purchases with less than a 20% down payment, on a 25-year amortization, as of October 29, 2026 and are subject to change. Canada’s policy rate is 2.50%, and nesto’s prime rate is 4.70%.
We're curious…
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) About the Ontario Housing Market in 2026
Are Ontario Housing Market Conditions Favouring Buyers or Sellers in 2026?
Ontario housing market conditions favoured buyers over sellers in September 2026. Calculated by nesto from OREA’s counts of 13,340 sales and 39,261 new listings, the sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) was 34.0%, below the 40% line that marks a buyer’s market and down from 43.9% in August. Months of inventory rose to 5.4, well above the long-run average of 3.4, and active listings stood 39.8% above the 10-year average.
Are Home Prices in Ontario Going Up or Down in 2026?
Home prices in Ontario are falling in 2026, and the decline is uneven across property types. The MLS HPI composite benchmark was $736,300 in September, down 3.9% year over year. Apartments fell hardest, down 6.2% to $484,900, while townhouses fell 6% to $581,400, and single-family homes proved the most resilient, down 3.8% to a benchmark of $814,900. The average resale price was $791,691, down 4.3%.
Why Are Ontario Sales Running So Far Below Historical Norms?
Ontario sales are running well below historical norms because the year-over-year comparison understates just how soft the market has become. September’s 13,340 transactions were down 8.3% from September 2025, but they sat 21% below the monthly 10-year average, a much larger shortfall than the annual figure alone suggests. Year-to-date sales fell a more modest 3.2% to 122,756.
Which Property Type Is Softening Fastest in Ontario?
Condominiums are softening fastest in Ontario, with the apartment benchmark down 6.2% year over year to $484,900. Townhouses are nearly as weak, off 6% to $581,400. Single-family homes have given back less ground, down 3.8% to a benchmark of $814,900, so detached values have held up comparatively better.
How Does Ontario Compare With Quebec and British Columbia?
Ontario’s composite benchmark of $736,300 sits well above Quebec’s $537,100, but Ontario is falling while Quebec is rising. Ontario is down 3.9% year over year, according to OREA, while Quebec is up 1.1% in nesto’s housing data. On rents, Ontario’s average asking rent fell 4.8% to $2,240 in September, a larger decline than the 2.9% drop to $2,403 in British Columbia and the 1.7% drop to $1,933 in Quebec, according to Rentals.ca.
What Is Limiting Ontario Housing Demand in 2026?
Weak underlying demand, not a supply shortage, is limiting Ontario housing activity in 2026. September sales sat 21% below the monthly 10-year average, even as year-to-date sales eased a more modest 3.2% to 122,756, while active listings stood 39.8% above the 10-year average. Qualification remains a factor too, because the mortgage stress test requires borrowers to qualify at a rate above what they will actually pay, so it continues to cap buying power even as condo prices fall.
Is It Cheaper to Rent or Buy in Ontario in 2026?
The cost of both renting and buying is easing in Ontario in 2026. The MLS HPI composite benchmark is down 3.9% year over year, while Ontario’s average asking rent fell 4.8% to $2,240 in September, according to Rentals.ca. Whether renting or buying costs less over time still depends on how long it takes to save the down payment, how long you plan to stay and the mortgage rate you qualify for.
Why Choose nesto
At nesto, our commission-free mortgage experts are salaried and regulated, with most licensed in multiple provinces. They are evaluated on client satisfaction and the quality of their advice, and they help you compare mortgage options and understand rates and qualification requirements. Once you’re ready to move forward, they work with you on a mortgage strategy that fits your situation.
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