Toronto Housing Market Outlook 2026

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Toronto Market Reset Driven by Oversupply

The Toronto housing market entered 2026 with materially lower sales, rising resale inventory, and softening benchmark prices. Unlike Montreal, where price resilience remains dominant, Toronto is undergoing a price reset driven by excess supply, particularly in the condominium segment.

Are Toronto Home Prices Falling in 2026?

Toronto home prices are declining compared to last year. Both benchmark and average prices have trended lower, and recent monthly data confirms that downward pressure has not yet reversed. This price adjustment is due to elevated resale inventory relative to buyer demand. When listings consistently outnumber active buyers, sellers must compete more aggressively on price.

The correction is more pronounced in the condominium segment than in ground-oriented housing.

Why Is the Toronto Condo Market Struggling?

The Toronto condominium market is underperforming because supply growth has outpaced absorption. Over the past 2 years, pre-construction sales have slowed significantly, while a large pipeline of previously launched projects is now nearing completion. Many of these units are entering a resale market with ample inventory.

The condominium sector remains the weakest part of the GTA market. Several forces are converging:

• Exceptionally low pre-construction sales over the past 2 years
• A wave of completions is adding to the resale supply
• Investor confidence remains subdued
• Reduced investor demand due to slower rent growth and rising vacancy rates

Investor demand has softened due to slower rent growth, rising vacancy rates, and broader economic uncertainty. As a result, condominium prices are subject to greater downward pressure than those of other property types.

Will Home Sales in Toronto Recover Later in 2026?

Toronto home sales are expected to increase modestly compared to 2025, but activity will likely remain below long-term historical averages. Lower prices and improved mortgage borrowing capacity may encourage some previously sidelined buyers to re-enter the market. However, elevated unemployment, cautious investor behaviour, and ongoing affordability constraints will limit the pace of recovery.

A stronger rebound in sales depends on sustained labour market improvement and a reduction in resale inventory. A meaningful recovery likely depends on three factors:

• Labour market improvement
• Stabilization in condo absorption
• Reduction in excess resale inventory

What Is Happening to Housing Starts in Toronto?

Total housing starts are projected to decline in 2026, primarily due to weakness in the condominium segment. Developers have delayed or cancelled projects because presale activity has been insufficient to support new construction. Ground-oriented housing starts are also expected to remain subdued as affordability pressures limit move-up demand.

Purpose-built rental construction remains the strongest segment. Government financing programs and municipal incentives continue to support rental development, which is shifting the supply mix away from investor-driven condominiums.

How Are Rentals Affecting the Housing Market in Toronto?

The rental vacancy rate in Toronto is expected to rise in 2026 as new rental units become available while population growth moderates. Slower rent growth reduces investors’ urgency to purchase condominiums, further softening demand in that segment. Over time, as new completions slow and resale inventory is absorbed, price stabilization is expected.

Is Toronto Experiencing a Housing Crash?

Toronto is not experiencing a systemic housing crash. Financial distress indicators remain contained, and the market continues to function with active transactions. However, the market is undergoing a cyclical price correction driven by elevated supply and moderated demand.

Toronto’s defining theme for 2026 is adjustment. Prices are recalibrating to align with available inventory and buyer capacity. A return to sustained price growth in the city will require inventory absorption and stronger economic momentum.

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Toronto Housing Market Highlights

• The average selling price of a home in Toronto decreased by 8.1% year-over-year to $935,200 in January.
• The average selling price of a single-family home in Toronto decreased by 8.1% year-over-year to $1,144,400 in January.
• The average selling price of a townhouse/multiplex in Toronto decreased by 10% year-over-year to $681,500 in January.
• The average selling price of a condo in Toronto decreased by 9.7% year-over-year to $542,500 in January.
• The average rent in Toronto is now $2,504 for January.
• February 20, 2026: Today’s lowest mortgage rate in Toronto is for a 5–year fixed.

Data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) indicates that the average price of resale residential homes sold across Toronto in January was $935,200, and itdecreased of 8.1% compared to a year ago.

TREBB also reported a sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) of 29%, indicating Buyers market conditions in Toronto for January.

Composite Home Prices

Single-family Home Prices

Townhouse and Multiplex Prices

Condo Prices

Transactions –  Number of Sales

New Listings

Real Estate Market

The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) measures the number of home sales compared to new listings. An SNLR below 40% indicates a buyer’s market, where buyers hold the upper hand and greater negotiating power. An SNLR between 40% and 60% is a balanced market, while an SNLR of over 60% is considered a seller’s market. 

Market Breakdown By Property Type for Toronto

Annual Changes to Composite Home Prices in Toronto

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Toronto Market Rents Snapshot

The average rent in Toronto was $2,504 for January.

The average rent for a 1-bedroom apartment in Toronto was $2,183 for the month of January, which decreased by 7.2% year over year.

The average rent for a 2-bedroom apartment in Toronto was $2,801 for the month of January, which decreased by 8.6% year over year.

Rental Price Changes by City

Rank	CITY	Total Average	1 Bedroom	2 Bedrooms	Year-over-Year Change
1	North Vancouver	$2,958	$2,469	$3,287	−2.2%
2	Vancouver	$2,650	$2,362	$3,279	−4.8%
3	Oakville	$2,502	$2,216	$2,576	−19.3%
4	Toronto	$2,504	$2,183	$2,801	−8.6%
5	North York	$2,528	$2,127	$2,688	−1.9%
6	Burnaby	$2,505	$2,144	$2,809	−6.7%
7	Coquitlam	$2,524	$2,107	$2,765	−3.9%
8	Mississauga	$2,446	$2,043	$2,454	−8.6%
9	Etobicoke	$2,382	$2,102	$2,562	−8.3%
10	Kanata	$2,412	$2,238	$2,502	−17.3%
11	Brampton	$2,361	$1,910	$2,208	−7.2%
12	Kingston	$2,315	$1,968	$2,502	22.0%
13	Scarborough	$2,318	$1,910	$2,417	−5.6%
14	Vaughan	$2,266	$2,082	$2,499	−6.7%
15	Greater Sudbury	$2,067	$1,918	$2,167	−2.4%
16	Langley	$2,344	$2,071	$2,465	−1.8%
17	Burlington	$2,376	$2,065	$2,443	−5.0%
18	Ajax	$2,248	$1,814	$2,229	−4.5%
19	Halifax	$2,270	$2,052	$2,500	0.10%
20	Victoria	$2,224	$1,942	$2,605	−5.1%
21	Guelph	$2,159	$1,979	$2,291	−4.0%
22	Kelowna	$2,015	$1,686	$2,124	−10.8%
23	Surrey	$2,124	$1,818	$2,249	−8.5%
24	Ottawa	$2,127	$1,945	$2,458	−2.8%
25	New Westminster	$2,120	$1,872	$2,611	−7.4%
26	Waterloo	$2,230	$2,028	$2,367	−2.7%
27	Oshawa	$2,121	$1,753	$2,052	−5.4%
28	Nanaimo	$2,055	$1,820	$2,328	8.20%
29	Barrie	$2,154	$1,904	$2,184	−1.2%
30	East York	$2,302	$1,963	$2,554	−4.3%
31	Hamilton	$2,069	$1,753	$2,086	0.40%
32	Brossard	$2,066	$1,794	$2,169	1.60%
33	Cambridge	$2,057	$1,797	$2,101	−6.4%
34	Kamloops	$1,992	$1,805	$2,161	5.60%
35	Airdrie	$1,954	$1,450	$1,739	−0.9%
36	Laval	$2,098	$1,710	$2,348	11.00%
37	Kitchener	$2,013	$1,819	$2,130	−4.5%
38	Brantford	$1,979	$1,802	$2,058	0.50%
39	Niagara Falls	$1,929	$1,684	$1,899	−9.4%
40	Montreal	$1,913	$1,710	$2,216	−1.3%
41	London	$1,916	$1,650	$2,051	−4.5%
42	Gatineau	$1,885	$1,655	$2,072	−4.7%
43	Calgary	$1,871	$1,535	$1,850	−3.9%
44	Peterborough	$1,973	$1,677	$1,991	−2.3%
45	St. Catharines	$1,827	$1,608	$1,945	−1.2%
46	Welland	$1,675	$1,506	$1,823	−0.4%
47	Windsor	$1,658	$1,523	$1,839	−0.1%
48	Sarnia	$1,728	$1,508	$1,833	−3.9%
49	Winnipeg	$1,664	$1,409	$1,796	3.10%
50	Côte Saint-Luc	$1,535	$1,402	$1,787	−21.4%
51	Edmonton	$1,591	$1,279	$1,619	−2.6%
52	Saskatoon	$1,566	$1,350	$1,554	4.50%
53	Lethbridge	$1,528	$1,369	$1,570	0.70%
54	Quebec City	$1,485	$1,364	$1,646	−12.3%
55	Red Deer	$1,529	$1,219	$1,489	5.90%
56	Regina	$1,466	$1,255	$1,538	4.80%
57	Fort McMurray	$1,370	$1,167	$1,419	−1.3%
58	Medicine Hat	$1,372	$1,217	$1,395	0.10%
59	Lloydminster	$1,235	$1,025	$1,340	7.70%
60	St. John's	$1,238	$1,086	$1,250	−6.4%

Average Rent by City
Source: Rentals.ca Network Data & Urbanation Inc.

Rental Price Changes by Province

Rental Price Growth by Housing Type

How Does Renting Compare with Homeownership in Toronto?

Each $100,000 in mortgage balance costs an average of $509.35 per month on nesto’s lowest fixed 5-year rate at and $495.28 per month on nesto’s lowest adjustable 5-year rate at .

For each $100,000 in mortgage balance, a 0.25% change in Canada’s policy rate impacts the monthly payment by $13.23. Rates used for calculation are those offered on insured purchases with less than a 20% downpayment on a 25-year amortization. Canada’s policy rate is 2.25%, and nesto’s prime rate is set to 4.45%.

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) About Toronto Housing Market Outlook for 2026

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nesto is on a mission to offer a positive, empowering and transparent property financing experience – simplified from start to finish.

Contact our licensed and knowledgeable mortgage experts to find your best mortgage rate in Canada.

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